Gate Research: Crypto Market Rallies Amid High Volatility in September, Macro Liquidity Tightens and Spot Inflows Return

In September, the crypto market posted gains amid heightened volatility, with BTC and ETH rising 6.4% and 8.84%, respectively. The seven-asset equal-weight portfolio gained 18.93%, led by ZEC with a monthly return of 69.65%. Global asset performance was mixed, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.86%, the U.S. Dollar Index rising 2.03%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing 54 basis points. Gate Research released its September Quantitative Report, reviewing macroeconomic factors, institutional fund flows, derivatives positioning, on-chain liquidity, and strategy backtesting results.

• U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.65 billion and $832 million, respectively, with inflows concentrated toward the end of the month.

• Stablecoin supply increased by 1.26%, DeFi TVL grew by 10.6%, and monthly DEX trading volume reached $317.542 billion.

• Open interest in Gate's BTC and ETH perpetual futures declined by 1.85% and 8.97%, respectively, while funding rates remained modestly positive for most of the month.

• The first principal component explained 74.86% of the total variance in seven-asset returns, indicating substantial shared market risk and limited diversification benefits from equal-weight allocation.

• Time-series momentum generated a cumulative return of 21.1% in the first nine months of 2026, while cross-sectional momentum gained 22.1% in September. The volatility-managed strategy limited maximum drawdown to 12.22%.

Over the next one to three months, key indicators to monitor include the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, ETF fund flows, stablecoin supply, derivatives open interest, and funding rates. Portfolio risk will be managed through macro risk filters, volatility-based rebalancing, single-asset exposure limits, and transaction cost controls.

Discover more details today → Gate Research: Crypto Market Rallies Amid High Volatility in September, Macro Liquidity Tightens and Spot Inflows Return

Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer

Investing in cryptocurrency markets involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct their own research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such decisions.

Gate Team
October 12, 2026

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