$BTC 79,056 heading into September. August just closed at +22.26%, its strongest month in nearly thirteen months, rallying all the way from the June low of 59,495.
The statistics first: over the ten years from 2015 to 2024, September averaged -2.55%, with a median of -4.52%; six red months and four green, making it one of the worst months of the year. The worst was -13.88% in 2019. But note that the most recent two years, 2023 and 2024, both closed green—the seasonality is still there, but its impact has clearly weakened.
What really matters is the structure. The funding rate is only +0.006%,