Historical data shows: when the probability of a rate hike surges to 94%, the Fed really does hike rates
The interest rate market’s view of Wednesday’s meeting is already very clear.
Interest rate swaps tied to the Fed’s meeting date show that traders see about a 94% probability that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and his colleagues will raise the benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points from its current 3.5%-3.75% range, equivalent to pricing in about 23 basis points of tightening.
Historical data further reinforces this conviction. According to data compiled by Bloomberg dating back to 2008, whenever

BTC-0.15%

ETH-1.15%

Bykaranteli2 hours ago

JUST IN: Bernstein expects aggressive rulemaking from the SEC and CFTC to fill the gaps after CLARITY Act failure. Potential regulatory clarity could sway crypto compliance costs and risk appetite. $BTC $ETH

BTC-0.18%

ETH-1.09%

YunxiangWealthLectureHall43 minutes ago

Tonight’s rate decision will be announced in the early morning Beijing time.
ETH at 2,391, rebounding from 2,358.88, with a bullish MACD crossover below the zero line and volume surging 117%—the oversold rebound has begun.
But it remains below all moving averages, with all four lines in a bearish alignment, and has run into the 2,405–2,424 moving-average cluster overhead.
The candle before the decision doesn’t count. What matters is when the outcome is announced.
Hold 2,358.88; only a move above 2,405 makes it worth talking about a rebound. $ETH

ETH-1.09%

FinancialDoubleGains 24 minutes ago

Deposited 700u, followed a trader’s signals, then messed around on my own. By yesterday, I only had 100u left. Then I traded gold, dropping as low as 300 RMB. It all came back today. I’m never following the crowd again.

GLDX+1.26%

PAXG+1.51%

LittlePj 2 hours ago

Stay steady, brothers. Wait for the decision; if you can't wait, add me for copy trading and I'll handle it.

OldACryptocurrencyCircle an hour ago

Honestly, I’m surprised this trade has survived until now; luck played a significant role.

A few days ago, I saw $MAGMA retest without breaking through, with buying pressure strengthening, so I suggested going long at lower levels but didn’t chase.

The market is waited out, and profits are held onto. Don’t get carried away by profits, and don’t despair over drawdowns.

From 0.17163 to 0.24026, floating profit reached +785.85%. The grind beforehand was frustrating, but seeing it break out feels great. I’ve taken profit on 80% first, with the remaining 20% protected at the entry price. If

MAGMA+1.02%

ZEC+11.95%

ADA-4.82%

GalaxyTradingNotesBitan hour ago

$PONS This short position did not go smoothly right after opening. After entering, I was first hit by a rebound that swept my protection level, and only managed to hold it after reducing the position size. The setup was based on each rebound being weaker than the last, with price consistently unable to break above the previous high.
After the lower boundary of the range broke and the rebound failed to reclaim it, I confirmed the bearish continuation. I did not rush to add during the hold; I only split the remaining position 80/20 when the rebound met resistance. After securing +172.16%, my min

PONS-8.14%

DOGE-2.74%

ZEC+11.95%

bitcoindata21 an hour ago

The downtrend in ETH/BTC was 50% longer, taking 176 weeks from 2022-2025, vs 116 weeks during 2017-2019.
The fun has begun, but how many people are still standing?

ETH-1.09%

BTC-0.18%

AbbasiBrandan hour ago

Market Updates

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MountainTopMedia'sBigShort 42 minutes ago

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BTC-0.15%

ETH-1.15%

TSLA+1.23%

GateUser-34a41377 an hour ago

Be careful with leverage.
#FOMC today. ⏰ 7pm GMT+1
Rate hikes expected and the speech after can move the markets both way 👽

Kikcharts 21 minutes ago

what happened here? $baton

Jensan hour ago

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 "The Trump Administration is going all out to convince Senate Republicans to advance" the Clarity Act today, Semafor reports 👀

Ansel1232 hours agoBearish

🔴 $DOGE Analysis
Around $1.35K in long positions were liquidated near $0.07923. DOGE is trading around $0.080 and remains under short-term bearish pressure, with resistance near $0.0835–$0.0850 and support around $0.0781 then $0.0747.
Entry: $0.0820–$0.0835
TP1: $0.0781
TP2: $0.0767
TP3: $0.0747
SL: $0.0855
I’d wait for rejection around the entry zone. A clean reclaim above $0.0855 would weaken the bearish setup.
#DOGE #Crypto #Trading $DOGE ‌

DOGE-2.74%

Zijian an hour ago

Is everyone making money while I'm the only one losing? 😭
Recently, seeing the RH chain heating up and the Chinese-speaking community deep in FOMO, I bought two MEMEs.
It ended in total wipeout. One account was down as much as 76%, with average losses starting at 65%~