#美股AI板块遭遇重挫 #每周来晒 This latest sell-off in U.S. AI stocks was a deleveraging-driven rout, but the AI trade has entered a deeper correction. From here, tech giants with stable cash flows look more attractive, while chip stocks need to be repriced based on valuations and expected returns.
Why it’s about more than deleveraging
The trigger was political: Democrats won both chambers, raising market concerns about tighter data center permitting and power-use regulations.
AI investment returns are being reassessed: Five cloud providers spent $556.9 billion on capital expenditures in the first nine months, exceeding their operating cash flow.
Positions were too crowded: Funds were all-in on AI infrastructure, and when the catalyst changed, concentrated liquidations by quantitative funds amplified the losses. How chip stocks, tech giants, and defensive sectors compare
Chip stocks: They fell the hardest, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 12.25% in one day, wiping out NVIDIA’s year-to-date gains. Demand has not peaked, but valuations need to come down first.
Tech giants: Microsoft fell much less because its free cash flow remains positive. Companies like this are better able to withstand rising financing costs.
Defensive sectors: Utilities and consumer staples fell the least, while funds also flowed into U.S. Treasuries and gold. But all eleven S&P 500 sectors fell this time, so defensive assets can only lose less and are unlikely to rise against the trend.
When to consider chip stocks
Restrictions on data center construction have not actually taken effect.
Cloud providers’ capital expenditures continue to grow and can be converted into profits.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s valuation is no longer being pushed lower, with its forward P/E now down to around 13x. For now, favor giants with strong cash flows like Microsoft; chip stocks may be worth considering once they stabilize.
Why it’s about more than deleveraging
The trigger was political: Democrats won both chambers, raising market concerns about tighter data center permitting and power-use regulations.
AI investment returns are being reassessed: Five cloud providers spent $556.9 billion on capital expenditures in the first nine months, exceeding their operating cash flow.
Positions were too crowded: Funds were all-in on AI infrastructure, and when the catalyst changed, concentrated liquidations by quantitative funds amplified the losses. How chip stocks, tech giants, and defensive sectors compare
Chip stocks: They fell the hardest, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 12.25% in one day, wiping out NVIDIA’s year-to-date gains. Demand has not peaked, but valuations need to come down first.
Tech giants: Microsoft fell much less because its free cash flow remains positive. Companies like this are better able to withstand rising financing costs.
Defensive sectors: Utilities and consumer staples fell the least, while funds also flowed into U.S. Treasuries and gold. But all eleven S&P 500 sectors fell this time, so defensive assets can only lose less and are unlikely to rise against the trend.
When to consider chip stocks
Restrictions on data center construction have not actually taken effect.
Cloud providers’ capital expenditures continue to grow and can be converted into profits.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s valuation is no longer being pushed lower, with its forward P/E now down to around 13x. For now, favor giants with strong cash flows like Microsoft; chip stocks may be worth considering once they stabilize.
