#SpaceX市值超越台積電 SPCX still has a sentiment premium in the short term, but further significant valuation upside requires continued fulfillment of AI computing-power orders and improved cash flow.
This looks more like a “post-earnings revaluation” than a move driven solely by surpassing TSMC in market capitalization. At the October 21 close, SPCX stood at $159.31, up 7.79% on the day, with a total market capitalization of about $2.16 trillion. The share price has already priced in the positive third-quarter results[9].
The results were indeed strong: third-quarter revenue was about $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year; net profit was $4.4 billion, compared with a loss of $1.1 billion in the same period last year. The company achieved its first quarterly profit, an important turning point in its valuation story.
Growth was mainly driven by two factors:
AI computing power became the largest source of revenue: the Superintelligence business generated $7.56 billion in revenue, up 830% year over year, accounting for about 52%.
Starlink remains the main source of profits: the connectivity business contributed most of operating profit, while government, enterprise, and aviation customers expanded rapidly.
SPCX’s story has therefore changed: it is shifting from a “space launch company” to a combination of “AI computing power + satellite network.”
Can the valuation rise further? Yes, but the bar is high!
The bullish case is clear: AI cloud contracts continue to convert into recognized revenue, computing capacity maintains high utilization, and the additional capacity from fourth-quarter capital spending is monetized quickly. In that case, the market will view SPCX as a scarce AI infrastructure asset, and its valuation multiple may remain high. The risks are just as clear.
Third-quarter capital spending was about $19.6 billion, most of it directed toward AI infrastructure; free cash flow remains negative. Fourth-quarter capital spending is expected to rise further to $35 billion–$40 billion, indicating that expansion is still accelerating.
This means a key test lies ahead: can new revenue keep pace with new investment? If AI revenue growth slows, or cash flow improves more slowly than expected, the current high valuation will come under pressure. There is another practical detail: SPCX’s P/E ratio is still negative, and its share price is supported mainly by growth expectations and the AI narrative, rather than the stable profits of a mature software company.
The bond market is also reflecting this divergence—after the results were announced, SpaceX bond spreads widened, indicating that equity investors are focused on growth while creditors are more concerned about financing and debt risks.
Overall, SPCX is likely to remain strong at elevated levels in the short term, especially if it continues to land large AI contracts, increase computing-capacity utilization, or improve free cash flow. Whether it can truly break into a new valuation range over the medium term will mainly depend on three factors:
1. Whether AI revenue can repeatedly exceed expectations;
2. Whether Starlink can continue to provide stable profits;
3. Whether massive capital spending can translate into positive free cash flow.
SPCX has already completed one round of valuation expansion on the back of its earnings report. Whether it can climb another step in the next phase will depend on how quickly its computing-power investments generate returns, rather than short-term changes in market-cap rankings.
#WCTCS9 $SPCX
