Yang Guang bit | October 19
$ETH — Oil prices retreat and rate-hike expectations cool, with the oversold rebound nearing the resistance zone
[Today’s Strategy]
Entry timing: Set up short positions on a rebound into the 2430–2450 range
Stop-loss: Set the stop-loss for short positions above 2470
Staggered take-profit:
First target: 2390–2400
Second target: 2350–2360
[Key Takeaway]
ETH began an oversold rebound over the weekend from a low of 2327.32, reaching a high of 2429.24 and currently trading around 2412, up nearly 100 points from the low; on the 4-hour chart, the price is above the short-term moving averages, but MA30 (2422) and EMA30 (2428) form key resistance overhead. On the news front, Iran’s foreign minister said the “7-day plan” remains on the negotiating table, raising expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen; international oil prices plunged in the short term, with WTI falling below $99, easing inflationary pressure at the margin; CME data shows the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October rising to 83.9%, as rate-hike expectations cool; however, on-chain Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of nearly $910 million for two consecutive weeks, with institutional funds still pulling out, casting doubt on the rebound’s staying power. The intraday strategy is to sell at resistance and take light, short-term long positions at support; don’t chase a one-way move. Stay on top of the trend throughout—there will be no trend-driven crash or plunge. $ETH
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