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Article
What Is Trading Expectancy? How Can You Tell Whether a Strategy Has an Edge Over the Long Run?

In cryptocurrency trading, some people review their win rate and look for better entry points every day, while overlooking a more fundamental question: If you repeatedly trade according to the same set of rules, how much will you earn or lose per trade on average over the long run?

That is the question trading expectancy aims to answer.

First, what is trading expectancy?

Trading expectancy is the theoretical average return per trade under a given strategy and set of statistical conditions. It ana
Break below, break below
Everything breaks below, wiped out completely!!!
Hope the bear market lasts at least 2 months
Let’s talk again in 2027
Trenches
ZIG
Z
bade
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ZIG
0x8c...1145
Market Cap
$.
Change
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24h Vol
$.
Holders
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BTC
B
bade
b
BTC
C5xp...pump
Market Cap
$.
Change
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24h Vol
$.
Holders
.
GM
G
bade
b
GM
0x13...7777
Market Cap
$.
Change
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24h Vol
$.
Holders
.
Diamond
D
bade
b
Diamond
5VCE...pump
Market Cap
$.
Change
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24h Vol
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Holders
.
STONK
S
bade
b
STONK
6GmA...UNgx
Market Cap
$.
Change
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24h Vol
$.
Holders
.
In just half a month, the total value of the trades I’ve guided has already reached $70k. With greater responsibility, I’ll have even more respect for the market. My win rate remains 100%. Every trade has a stop-loss, and I won’t be liquidated. I only trade BTC perpetual contracts$BTC
BTC-0.65%
  • 2
11.7 BTC Market Analysis

　　BTC is currently in a weak consolidation and recovery phase following its decline. The Bollinger Bands have generally narrowed and flattened, with the fast and slow lines converging. Previous bearish momentum has clearly faded, but no clear short-term rebound or reversal trend has formed either, so the market is primarily moving sideways within a range. Key support levels are first the Bollinger middle band at 75830, then the lower band near 75297, with strong support at the previous low of 74810. A sequential break below these support levels could restart the downt
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BTC-0.65%
Register to Claim, 39,000 USDT in Instant Rewards https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6792?ref=VLARBF1YAG&ref_type=132
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Just hold on to it and wait for it to reach $1
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Within three minutes, it closed nearly $9 million in $BTC
short positions, then immediately switched gears and shorted 620k Trump coins.
0x4b62…'s latest moves on Hyperliquid: at 12:52 Beijing time, it closed its entire short position of approximately 118 BTC; at 12:55, it directly opened a 10x $TRUMP short position.
A live screenshot at 13:06 showed a short position of approximately 621.6k coins, with a notional value of about $736.5k, an average entry price of $1.1849, and a liquidation price of approximately $1.2477.
The account's equity was about $78.3k, while the position size was nearl
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BTC-0.65%
TRUMP-0.90%
It's been a whole month already!!!
I guess I'm just not cut out to make a living as a creator.
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So many beautiful trading ranges
Break down, break down
Break them all, back to the start of the year
Back to 2025
Even back to Liberation Day, and test a major double bottom!
At least we can have a bear market for 2 months
Let's wait until 2027 to talk about it
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Layout: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin
live-cover
LIVE1,320
  • 1
Gold is interesting from here on
ORO-0.22%
11.7 Market Analysis

Bitcoin Strategy Reference Setup
Entry zone: Short around 76200—76900
Stop loss: 77600
First target: 75000, second target: 74200

No one expected the nonfarm payrolls report to come in so surprisingly strong!
October’s nonfarm data massively beat expectations across the board: 165,000 jobs were added, far above market expectations of 59,000–65,000; unemployment fell to 4.1%, hourly wages rose 0.4% month over month, and even the previous two months’ figures were revised upward—a full three-month streak of hot data.

This scorching report pushed market bets on a Fed rate h
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BTC-0.65%
ETH-1.23%
  • 1
M1. 200 EMA just crossed
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market updates
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LIVE1,185
Bitcoin: The next levels to watch are 73,000 and 73,000. If 73,000 breaks, 69,000 basically won't hold. If 73,000 breaks, I see 40,000 as a possibility. There is a chance it could bounce straight back up from 69,000, but that chance isn't very high. 69,000 is the absolute limit. If 73,000 breaks on heavy volume, it's basically game over. If it wicks down at this level and then goes back up, that would be the bottom. Normally, if we're going to see a bullish trend, 73,000 won't break. If 73,000 breaks, there's an 80% chance this rally is over, and then we're looking at 40,000.#非农就业数据推升加息预期 The
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BTC-0.65%
Next Week’s Gold Outlook
October nonfarm payrolls came in at 165k, significantly above the forecast of 65k. Although the result was in line with our forecast, price failed to continue lower after reaching 4026, indicating clear buying pressure below.
The broader market structure remains bearish, but the news triggered a rally. Price has not yet broken through the final line of defense for the bears that we mentioned previously.
On the lower timeframe, price is currently in an upward consolidation range. The plan is to wait for signals at support and resistance: if 4080 breaks, we can go long w
The Three Storage Giants Plunge in Unison! SanDisk, Micron and SK hynix Take a Beating—Which Is the Real Bargain?

AI class isn’t over yet, but storage stocks have already handed in their papers! SanDisk, Micron and SK hynix have faced heavy selling recently, with some stocks falling more than 10% in a single day. Once hot favorites in the AI supply chain, they’ve now become hot potatoes that investors are scrambling to avoid.
But here’s the question: Has the industry’s boom peaked, or is the market overreacting?
SanDisk focuses on NAND flash, benefiting from demand for high-speed storage at A
MU+4.71%
btc has entered a very critical late-stage phase. The chart carries risks that beginners shouldn’t try to navigate, and even experienced traders who understand it should be cautious. If beginners want to buy the dip, wait for a Type 2 buy signal; a Type 1 buy is strongly discouraged
BTC-0.67%
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