XRP Today News: Ripple Swell hype encounters a crash, long positions defend the 2.3 USD life-and-death battle

XRP broke through a key support level in the comprehensive big dump of the Crypto Assets market, subsequently rising slightly to $2.34, underperforming the overall Crypto Assets market. The Federal Reserve's concerns over inflation and speculation about an economic slowdown have intensified stagflation risks, but Ripple Swell 2025 could change market sentiment, with representatives from BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and the White House in attendance.

Concerns about stagflation and government shutdown trigger market panic

The Federal Reserve's concerns about inflation and speculation regarding a cooling economy have intensified stagflation risks, putting pressure on Crypto Assets. Notably, Bitcoin fell by 3.58%, marking its largest drop since President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on China to 157%, following a big dump of 5.82% on August 10. This market reaction indicates that macroeconomic uncertainties are overwhelming the independent narrative of Crypto Assets.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet's remarks have caused panic among investors: “Some areas of the economy have already fallen into recession, and if interest rates are not further lowered, other areas may also fall into recession.” At the same time that Treasury Secretary Bessenet made these remarks, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee also expressed concerns about high inflation, rather than a cooling labor market. Economic slowdown and rising inflation (essentially stagflation) could delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, further impacting the U.S. economy.

Stagflation is one of the most challenging dilemmas in economics. Traditional monetary policy tools often fail in the face of stagflation: lowering interest rates can stimulate the economy but exacerbate inflation, while raising interest rates can suppress inflation but further burden the economy. If The Federal Reserve (FED) chooses to prioritize combating inflation and maintains high interest rates, risk assets including Crypto Assets will continue to be under pressure. Conversely, if it chooses to prioritize supporting the economy and lowers interest rates, it may trigger a new round of inflation expectations, which would also be detrimental to the market.

The U.S. government shutdown has intensified pessimism in the market, leading Bitcoin, XRP, and the broader crypto assets market to decouple from the Nasdaq Composite Index. Economists speculate that the government shutdown may continue past Thanksgiving and could impact the U.S. economy. If the Senate deadlock persists, the government shutdown will enter its 34th day. According to Polymarket predictions, the U.S. government shutdown is expected to last until Thanksgiving, which is December 1st. This would bring the duration of the government shutdown to 61 days, nearly double the previous record.

JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli recently commented on the economic impact of a government shutdown: “The government shutdown reduces the annualized GDP growth rate by about 0.1% each week due to decreased government activity. If the shutdown lasts into unprecedented territory, it could also impact market sentiment.” Although this economic loss may seem minor, the cumulative effect could lead to a self-fulfilling expectation of economic recession.

Four Potential Catalysts for Ripple Swell 2025

Despite the pressure on market sentiment caused by macroeconomic factors and the tension from The Federal Reserve (FED), Ripple Swell 2025 may change market sentiment and reignite the upward momentum of XRP. Notable companies attending the conference include BlackRock, Citigroup, Fidelity Investments, and JPMorgan, with representatives from the White House also in attendance. The participation from Main Street highlights Ripple's growing influence in the traditional financial sector since the resolution of the SEC v. Ripple case.

The legal ruling in this case enables Ripple to enter the traditional financial sector, further solidifying XRP's position as a truly practical asset. In December 2017, XRP skyrocketed by 742%, with an annual increase of up to 30,452%. This was the first time Ripple Swell triggered FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment. While we cannot expect to completely replicate the insane price surges of that year, historical experience shows that Ripple Swell can indeed serve as a price catalyst.

Ripple Swell 2025 Potential Benefits

BlackRock announces iShares XRP trust plan: This will be the most significant news, potentially triggering a short-term big dump.

Mainstream banks integrate Ripple technology: The adoption by banks such as Citibank and JPMorgan will validate the practicality of XRP.

The White House announces XRP as a strategic reserve asset: Although the probability is low, if it happens, it will fundamentally change the status of XRP.

XRP Spot ETF Issuance Timeline: A clear listing date and expected institutional demand level will boost confidence.

Traders should closely monitor the latest developments of the meeting. XRP spot ETF issuers will also be a focus of attention, potentially providing the issuance date and expected institutional demand levels. Overall, Ripple Swell presents a bullish sentiment: everyone’s eyes should be on the live broadcast, looking for those unscripted moments.

Technical Analysis: Key Defense Line at $2.2

(Source: Trading View)

On November 3, XRP fell by 8.65%, erasing a gain of 0.95% from the previous day, closing at $2.3099. Following a decline of 11.84% in October, Monday's sell-off caused the token's trading price to drop well below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a bearish trend. The descending channel shows that at the beginning of October, XRP tested the upward trend line multiple times but failed to break through the upward resistance level, resulting in lower highs and lower lows, which is a bearish signal.

XRP Today News Technical Key Levels

Current Price: 2.3099 USD (-8.65%)

Key support: $2.2 (losing this may test $2.0)

Deep Support: 1.9112 USD (June low)

50-day moving average resistance: 2.6289 USD

200-day moving average resistance: 2.6011 USD

Resistance Levels: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62

Long-term goals: $3.00, $3.66 (historical high)

In a bearish scenario, if BlackRock downplays the launch of the XRP spot ETF, the deadlock in the U.S. Senate continues, the U.S. Senate opposes legislation favorable to Crypto Assets, blue-chip companies show no interest in using XRP as a treasury reserve asset, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency delays or denies Ripple's application for a U.S. charter bank license, and SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance sector, these negative events could lead to XRP falling below $2.20, making $2.00 a potential support level. If this price level is breached, the next key support level will be the low of $1.9112 from June 2025.

In a bullish scenario, if the U.S. government reopens, BlackRock submits the S-1 document for the iShares XRP Trust and officially launches it, blue-chip companies increase their holdings of XRP to boost their treasury reserves, Ripple obtains a U.S. chartered bank license, and the U.S. Senate passes the Market Structure Bill, these positive events could drive the price of XRP towards $2.35, with the potential to reach $2.50. If it can continue to break through $2.50, it is expected to further test $2.62.

On November 3rd, the reversal trend tested the lower support level. The current trend indicates a possible rebound, with the market's focus on the U.S. Senate, XRP spot ETF, and The Federal Reserve (FED). A breakthrough of $2.5 would make the upper track a potential support level. If the upper resistance level can be decisively broken, it suggests that prices are likely to reach new highs.

Balance of Short-term Fluctuations and Long-term Opportunities

The core contradiction in today's XRP news lies in the conflict between macro negative factors and micro positive factors. On one hand, concerns about stagflation, government shutdowns, and the hawkish stance of The Federal Reserve (FED) create systemic pressure; on the other hand, the top-tier institutional lineup and potential heavyweight news from Ripple Swell 2025 provide a catalyst for a rebound. This contradiction makes it extremely difficult to predict the short-term trend of XRP, but it also offers flexible traders opportunities for bidirectional operations.

The recent trend of XRP depends on the Capitol Hill, the approval of the XRP spot ETF, and the policy stance of the Federal Reserve (FED). If the Federal Reserve (FED) supports a rate cut in December, the ETF launch, and progress on the market structure bill in Capitol Hill, the token could reach new highs. This complexity of overlapping factors requires investors to pay attention to changes in technical, funding, and macro aspects simultaneously.

For long-term investors, the current XRP news today offers an interesting risk-reward ratio. If you build a position in the $2.2 to $2.3 range, set a stop loss at $2.0, and target $3.0, the risk-reward ratio is about 1:3. This asymmetric opportunity becomes more attractive when considering the potential catalyst of Ripple Swell.