XRP Today News: The probability of ETF approval reaches 99%, government shutdown unlikely to hinder $3 target

Today's news on XRP shows that Polymarket predicts a 99% chance that the XRP Spot ETF will be approved by 2025. The CEO of Canary Capital estimates that the inflow for the first month of the XRP ETF could reach $5 billion, along with the possibility of The Federal Reserve (FED) cutting rates by 25 basis points; the target price for XRP at $3 is still to be expected.

Government shutdown delays XRP ETF launch by 27 days

Due to the Senate's failure to vote on the temporary funding bill, profit-taking has ended XRP's four-day upward momentum. The most disappointing news about XRP today is that, despite the delay of the XRP Spot ETF, several cryptocurrency ETFs are still set to launch this week. The upcoming ETFs include the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, Grayscale Solana ETF, Canary Litecoin ETF, and Canary HBAR ETF.

The launch of these ETFs gives them an advantage over the delayed listing of the XRP Spot ETF. The longer the U.S. government shutdown lasts, the greater the delay in institutional funds flowing into the XRP Spot ETF. From a competitive standpoint, SOL, LTC, and HBAR ETFs will be the first to attract the attention and funds of institutional investors, while XRP loses its first-mover advantage.

Bill Morgan, a lawyer supporting cryptocurrency, commented on the timeline for the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs, stating, “I have a strong feeling that the XRP Spot ETF will be next. XRP always gets delayed, always gets postponed.” This statement reflects the expectations of the XRP community and highlights the history of this asset facing multiple delays in the regulatory process.

CryptoAmerica and journalist Eleanor Terrett explained why cryptocurrency ETFs should still be launched despite the U.S. government shutdown. She stated, “My understanding is that the 8-A filing is just as important as the S-1 filing in the process of getting the ETF ready to launch.” Terrett explained that the 8-A filing registers ETF shares under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for trading on exchanges. In contrast, the S-1 filing registers ETF shares under the Securities Act of 1933.

It is crucial that ETF issuers have also included provisions in their S-1 filings that allow them to launch the ETF within 20 days of submitting the application without needing SEC approval. XRP Spot ETF issuers may submit a revised S-1 filing containing similar wording, which means that it could automatically activate 20 days after submitting the documents.

Polymarket predicts a 99% chance of approval in 2025

Polymarket currently estimates that the likelihood of XRP Spot ETF approval in 2025 is 99%. This almost certain predictive probability is highly significant in today's news about XRP, as Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users bet real money on event outcomes, and its predictions are often more accurate than traditional analysis.

A 99% approval probability means that the market is almost entirely confident that the XRP Spot ETF will be approved at some point in 2025. Given that the U.S. government shutdown may end in November, the likelihood of launching the XRP ETF in the first or second quarter of 2025 is extremely high. This high probability forecast provides XRP investors with a clear timeframe and confidence support.

The launch of HBAR, LTC, and SOL ETFs may disappoint traders waiting for the XRP Spot ETF. Nevertheless, demand for the XRP ETF and XRP futures remains strong, indicating that the delay in launching the Spot ETF may not diminish interest in it. Given the anticipated demand for the Spot ETF, the outlook for XRP remains positive.

Canary Capital estimates first month inflow of 5 billion USD

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently expressed a more optimistic attitude towards the first month's inflow of the XRP Spot ETF. He stated, “I may have been a bit bearish before. We will stick to this number. If we reach this number, at least my prediction is correct; if we reach $10 billion, then my prediction is still correct, as we have at least garnered $5 billion. If we see an inflow of this scale, I believe it can definitely rank among the top 20 ETFs of all time, even if it doesn't make it into the top 10.”

The estimated inflow of 5 billion USD in the first month is extremely optimistic. For reference, the total inflow of Bitcoin Spot ETF in its first month was about 4.6 billion USD, while the first month inflow of Ethereum Spot ETF was significantly lower. If XRP ETF can indeed reach an inflow of 5 billion USD, it will confirm that the market demand for XRP is no less than that for Bitcoin.

The Institutional Appeal of XRP:

Regulatory Clarity: The lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC has basically concluded, providing legal certainty.

Use Cases: The adoption of cross-border payments and financial institutions has provided fundamental support.

High liquidity: XRP is the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, with ample liquidity.

Low Transaction Costs: Compared to Ethereum, XRP has very low transaction fees and fast settlement speed.

In addition, Ripple continues to expand into mainstream markets, and the planned $1 billion XRP reserve remains a strong driving force. The rebranded Ripple Prime is expected to increase the usage of XRP on Main Street. Ripple supports Evernorth in establishing a reserve fund plan of over $1 billion in XRP, and this enterprise-level adoption will provide long-term support for the price of XRP.

The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cut and China-US trade negotiation catalyst

As investors await the next Senate vote on Capitol Hill, the Federal Reserve may increase risk assets on Wednesday, October 29. The market predicts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with further cuts of 25 basis points expected in December. Unless there are surprises, the focus will be on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference.

Given the data showing a weak labor market before the government shutdown, Powell may support a rate cut in December. A dovish rate cut could boost the demand for XRP, supporting its rise to $3. XRP currently ranks fourth by market capitalization, and if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish rate cut policy and launches an XRP Spot ETF, XRP could replace Tether (USDT) and leap to third place.

The US-China trade negotiations are also an important catalyst. If President Trump and Chairman Xi Jinping reach a trade agreement during their meeting, global risk sentiment will significantly improve, benefiting the cryptocurrency market. XRP, as a cross-border payment tool, will directly benefit from the improvement in the international trade environment.

Technical Analysis: Target Path of 3 USD

(Source: Trading View)

On October 27, XRP fell by 0.44%, partially reversing the previous day's gain of 1.88%, closing at $2.6340. The token followed the overall cryptocurrency market, which declined by 0.53%. Despite the drop on Monday, XRP remained above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). However, the token continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, indicating a bearish tendency in the short term.

The Federal Reserve's decision and the Senate's passing of the temporary financing bill may lead to XRP breaking through the 50-day EMA, indicating a reversal of the bearish trend. Key technical levels to watch include: technical support at the 200-day EMA at $2.6124, and technical resistance at the 50-day EMA at $2.6897. Major support levels are $2.62, $2.35, $2.20, $2.00, and $1.90. Major resistance levels are $2.80, $3.00, and $3.66.

In a bullish scenario, if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates and Powell hints at a rate cut in December, the U.S. government reopens, the SEC approves the XRP Spot ETF, and blue-chip companies purchase XRP as treasury reserves, these catalysts could drive XRP up to $2.80. If it continues to break above $2.80, bulls will target the psychological barrier of $3.0.