XRP Price Prediction: Tariffs and Spot ETF latency threaten October Rebound, follow 2.8 USD resistance level

Despite facing dual macro pressures from the U.S. government shutdown and the escalation of U.S.-China tariffs, XRP demonstrated resilience on October 11, showing a slight increase of 0.45% that day, closing at $2.3861, partially recovering from the previous day's 15.3% fall. As of the time of writing, XRP is reported at $2.53, with a 24-hour increase of 6.9%. However, due to market concerns that the government shutdown may delay the approval of the XRP Spot ETF, along with risk aversion triggered by Trump announcing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, XRP's price plummeted to a nearly one-year low of $0.7773 on October 10. In the short term, market focus will concentrate on whether key resistance levels can be broken, as well as the progress of Washington and U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty: ETF latency concerns and trade war risks

Government shutdown hampers ETF approvals: XRP briefly reached a high of $3.1027 on October 2 but market concerns intensified as the U.S. government remains in shutdown. A prolonged shutdown could lead to delays in the approval date for the XRP Spot ETF, particularly affecting six out of the seven final decision dates.

Kalshi platform prediction for government shutdown duration: The betting platform Kalshi currently predicts that the U.S. government shutdown will last 31.9 days, up from 21.2 days on October 10. The likelihood of the shutdown extending beyond October 31 is as high as 53%. The delayed listing of the ETF will mean a lack of institutional fund "stickiness" support, thereby exposing XRP prices to higher market volatility.

U.S.-China Trade War Risks: In addition to the latency in ETF approvals, U.S. President Trump announced on October 10 the threat of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, further exacerbating investor anxiety. This move has raised concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and a "full-scale trade war," prompting a flight to safety in capital.

Price Volatility: Affected by tariff concerns, XRP price fell to an intraday low of $0.7773 on October 10, marking the lowest level since November 15 of last year, before rebounding above $2.3. The tariffs are set to take effect on November 1, coinciding with the conclusion of the APEC summit. The developments of these two events will be crucial for the short-term price trend of XRP.

Technical Analysis: Continuously below key moving averages, $2.4 resistance level awaits突破

Performance and Closing Price: Despite a 15.3% fall recorded the previous day, XRP still closed up 0.45% to $2.3861 on October 11, outperforming the market which fell 1.39% that day.

Bearish deviation remains: Although there has been some stabilization, XRP price continues to trade below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which confirms the overall bearish deviation in the market.

Key Technical Level:

Resistance levels: $2.4 and $3.0. Recent key technical resistance includes the 200-day EMA at $2.6338 and the 50-day EMA at $2.8637.

Support levels: $2.3, $2.0, and $1.9.

$2.4 resistance level significance: Whether XRP can break through the $2.4 resistance level will be the key to determining the short-term direction.

Catalysts and Scenario Analysis: Can the "Optimistic October" Hope Be Maintained?

Clearing Data Warning: Despite the optimistic expectations, the Kobeissi Letter points out that during Friday's crypto market flash crash, the ratio of long liquidations to short liquidations was 7:1, with the majority of liquidated positions (possibly over 80%) being high-leverage longs, indicating that the market is undergoing a painful deleveraging process.

Short-term potential catalysts:

The U.S. Senate plans to vote on the temporary funding bill on October 14.

Headlines on China-U.S. trade relations;

The latest news on XRP ETF approval, especially BlackRock's stance on iShares XRP Trust;

Blue chip companies' interest in XRP as an asset reserve.

Bearish Scenario：

BlackRock denies plans to launch an XRP Spot ETF.

The U.S. Senate failed to pass the temporary funding bill, further delaying the approval of the XRP Spot ETF.

Regulators block crypto-friendly regulations including the Market Structure Act.

Ripple's acquisition of a U.S. chartered banking license has been delayed or rejected by the OCC.

SWIFT maintains a dominant position in the global remittance market.

Consequences: These events may push XRP below $2.3 and expose the $2.0 psychological level.

Bullish Scenario：

The United States and China ease trade tensions.

The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill.

BlackRock submitted the S-1 filing for the iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approved the XRP Spot ETF.

Blue chip companies adopt XRP for capital reserves, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.

Ripple has obtained a charter banking license in the United States, and the Senate has passed the "Market Structure Bill".

SWIFT's share in the global remittance market is being seized by Ripple.

Consequences: These events may push XRP up to $2.4, subsequently testing the $2.8 resistance level. If it can continuously break through $2.84, the bull market target will point to $3.0.

Conclusion

The "Optimistic October" (Uptober) that started in early October has become a cautionary tale for high-leverage traders. In the coming trading periods, the price movement of XRP will be dominated by the legislative process in Washington and the China-U.S. trade negotiations. Although the technical aspect remains under a bearish bias, as long as the government shutdown issue is resolved, the approval process for XRP Spot ETF progresses smoothly, and the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, there is still hope for a revival of XRP's bull market momentum. The market's focus will be on Capitol Hill and trade negotiations to determine whether XRP can return above $3.0 or face a deeper pullback.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.