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Article
During the 2020-21 bull run bitcoin was trading significantly higher than fair value (green line) during a large portion of the cycle.
During the 2024-2025 bull run bitcoin barely even touched fair value and has been stuck between the support (red line) and fair value channel since 2022.
Today we’re sitting only 11% above support and a trip to resistance (purple line) would require a 771% price surge.
Bitcoin historically spends very little time near this red line and in the last 4 years has barely broken fair value.
No model is perfect but sentiment right now feels exactly the same as this
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BTC-0.67%
$ONE and $KOMA have both seen their upward momentum weaken noticeably after a rapid rally, with signs of exhaustion emerging in the market. I personally think a pullback is likely next, and I’ve already started building short positions.
$ONE futures short plan: Entry at 0.00240, first target at 0.00156, with defense at 0.00269.
$KOMA futures short plan: Entry at 0.01648, target at 0.01423, stop-loss at 0.01710.
The above is only a personal trading idea and does not constitute investment advice. Futures leverage carries extremely high risk, so please manage your position carefully.
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KOMA-3.91%
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The herd stuck in the old easy market days
Those days are far behind us
In the past I've explained how u only get a small window of a gold rush during a market mania phase
The bubble burst in 2024 with KOLs reaching max extraction
Markets only get harder with saturation
-Reaper
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A common misconception is to see the price near the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI falling to around 40, then assume “oversold means a rebound is inevitable” and rush to buy the dip. Technically, oversold is simply one expression of weakness, not a reversal signal. Until the moving average structure recovers, the odds of catching a rebound are not high. $SOL is currently in this state.
The moving averages are bearishly aligned, with MA5=89.66 below MA20=90.019. The price is trading below the short-term moving averages, so a rebound would only be meaningful if it first holds around 89.7. The
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SOL-0.77%
TRX+0.42%
XRP-1.15%
🚀 Let's grow together on X!
🤝 Followed? I’ll follow back!
❤️ Like, comment, and share.
🔁 Retweet to show your support!
Nobody grows alone here. Together, we’re stronger! 💪
#SDV #FollowForFollow #LeftFollowsLeft
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$BTC 1st Short-Term Target Hit! 💥🎯
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BTC-0.67%
Does @elonmusk have a favorite meme?
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$LYN It surged to 0.0313 within 24 hours, then got slammed back to 0.0258. That spike has the accounts of anyone who chased the top smoking. The 9.98% gain looks cheerful, but the intraday range hit 41%. What does the 85.6M in trading volume tell us? The big players distributed some tokens above 0.03, and now the price is stuck in the middle, with both bulls and bears testing the waters.
I checked the on-chain data: open interest in futures surged before this rally—a classic leverage-driven move, not one built on spot buying. What is this structure most vulnerable to? Hawkish Fed minutes. Last
LYN-0.44%
BTC-0.67%
Short $XRP at the 4-hour resistance. 1.16 holds, next target 1.15. If it breaks above 1.17, I’ll abandon this setup. - Price 1.16, below the 4-hour EMA50 (1.24); sellers still control the trend - Stop-loss risk 0.77%, TP3 return 1.2%; if TP3 is reached, the risk/reward ratio is 1.6R Entry: 1.161–1.163 (short) Targets: 1.157 → 1.153 → 1.148 Invalidation: 1.171 Not investment advice · Do your own research
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XRP-1.15%
21Shares reveals Bitcoin and altcoin allocation could improve 60/40 portfolio
Can adding crypto to a traditional portfolio actually improve risk-adjusted returns?
21Shares released a back-tested study showing that allocating 2–5% of a portfolio to Bitcoin and select altcoins may outperform the classic 60/40 stock/bond model.
⚠️ Personal market analysis only. NFA — manage risk and DYOR.
Educational content, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, deposit, or withdraw any asset. No paid promotion or referral/affiliate links.
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BTC-0.67%
After $XRP Has Fallen This Far, What You Should Really Wait for Isn’t Sentiment
$XRP is currently priced at 1.1616, down about 2.04% over 24 hours, with an intraday low of 1.1518 and a high of 1.1861. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both weak, and the volume ratio is around 0.0061, indicating very low market participation. Oversold describes a condition; a bottom is a confirmed outcome. A sharp decline only shows that selling pressure has occurred. It does not automatically mean the price is cheap, much less prove that buyers are truly defending the area around 1.1518.
At these levels, 1-hour
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XRP-1.15%
Gm everyone ☀️
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High prices continue to erode purchasing power, and US consumer confidence remains weak.
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LIVE32
$BTC
My mid-term setup for #BTC: still waiting for one more dip down into the target zone before looking for long entries.
Bullish setup is invalidated on a clean close below 62k
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BTC-0.67%
$SIGN ‌ just showed some serious volatility. Is a reversal finally brewing?

SIGN is trading near $0.00937 after briefly dipping to $0.00828 and bouncing sharply.

That long lower wick suggests buyers stepped in, but the daily trend remains bearish below the Supertrend at $0.01133.

Key levels I'm watching:

Support: $0.0090
Major support: $0.00828
Immediate resistance: $0.0106
Breakout zone: $0.0111–$0.01133

A sustained move above $0.01133 could signal a stronger recovery. Losing $0.00828 would put sellers back in control.

Interesting reaction from the lows, but bulls still have work to d
SIGN-2.90%
AMD+11.55%
AVAX is continuing to fall; bears are firmly in control as the price slides toward the intraday low. Shorting strategy on $AVAX . Entry range: 8.214 - 8.255 Take-profit 1: 7.834 | Take-profit 2: 7.514 Stop-loss: 8.503 Caution: If selling volume dries up, the price may rebound from the intraday low of 8.1740. Don’t go all in, friend. Keep your position size appropriate for your account.
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AVAX-0.10%
$TRX Short, sellers need to hold 0.320 on the 4H chart. Price is right below EMA50. I’d like to see a wick that spikes up and gets rejected, rather than price slowly breaking through it. That’s the whole idea. Quick read: - Price is 0.320 on the 4H chart, below EMA50 at 0.320; sellers still control the trend - 1H RSI is 68; the hourly timeframe is overheated - The daily price is below EMA200 at 0.326; the higher timeframe also supports this view. Short 0.3202–0.3204 Take profit 0.3199 / 0.3196 / 0.3192 Stop loss 0.3210 Not financial advice; do your own research.
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TRX+0.42%
‍#每周来晒 #广场交易达人 #WCTCS9 #美股财报季
Can I nail the Nasdaq next week? — My U.S. stock trading plan

The Nasdaq bounced on Friday, likely a short-term rebound after Thursday’s oversold conditions. I’m still bearish on the market at the start of next week. First, from a technical perspective, it broke through the key support levels of 25,000 and 24,425, the late-July low, one after another this week. It had already broken below support on the weekly chart, so there’s little support to hold in the short term. Second, on the policy front, the panic caused by the Democrats sweeping both the House and Sen
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AMD+11.55%
Visit #Gate to discover more event market opportunities https://gate.onelink.me/Hls0/prediction?page=detail&event_ticker=1262138&source=cex
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