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What has the market already priced in? Is the 80% probability of no rate hike reliable?

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has priced in an 80.6% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October and a 19.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. For December, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 21.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 64.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 14.2%.

Are these figures reliable? Let me break them down simply.

First, October. An 80.6% probability of no rate hike means the mar

THE TELEGRAM WALLET IS LIVE.
Update your app now. The next billion users are getting onboarded now.
Durov played this one smart.
To get access, someone who already has the wallet has to send you at least 0.1 $GRAM .
Then it shows up in the “Money” tab.
Every new user can activate the next one.
That’s how it spreads like wildfire.
For now you can only send and top up your balance.
Drop your usernames below, I’m activating people now 👇

In a Truth Social post, Trump assured supporters that the U.S. will not attack Iran “at any time” before the midterms. He also revealed that the U.S. was having productive discussions with Iran.
The shift eased some geopolitical risk concerns, while oil prices also pulled back from recent highs. $BTC ’s ability to hold above $81K could be important for the rebound, but negotiations remain unresolved, so renewed tensions could quickly reverse the move.
With Trump’s statement, Bitcoin traders increased their bets. Specifically, they bet the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will last until mid-November. Polyma

The Republic of China is celebrating its 115th birthday
Tell you a joke...
Today I found out that some Chinese people really believe the Wuhan virus was caused by the United States to reduce the population.

All Pyth revenue used for buybacks, $PYTH surges 15.7%
Pyth DAO is pouring all protocol revenue into market buybacks, pulling from 0.08446 to 0.08721 within one hour after the $PYTH event, up 3.26%, with a 15.7% gain over 24h. I’m directly bullish on the pullback amid the high-level divergence, no ambiguity.

The mechanism is rock-solid—the 100% rule is hardcoded, with all revenue received by the DAO directly turned into buying pressure for PYTH. It’s not a slogan; it’s a buying machine.

Volume is also cooperating—24h trading volume is 17313506 USDT, 4.107 times the 30-day average, with vo

Navigating Choppy Markets: Strategic Asset Allocation with Gate's Idle Funds Campaign
During periods of high market volatility and sideways price action, aggressive trading often increases exposure to risk without guaranteeing proportional returns. Effective capital management requires balancing liquidity maintenance with yield generation on unallocated cash reserves. Rather than leaving stablecoin holdings unproductive while waiting for clear market entry points, structured yield products offer a low-risk strategy to generate consistent returns.
Overview of the Campaign Tiers
Gate's Idle Fu

Today on Quant AI, I decided to focus on signals.
I opened the @tryquantio website and went to the signals tab. I saw lots of signals but I decided to focus on the Starknet as posted by Degen News on X.
The signal was about Starknet considering to become an L1 because of QUANTUM THREAT AND AI.
Firstly I simply clicked the "Ask Quant" button right there and it redirected me to the chatbot and automatically asked the question: "Research this market signal and verify it independently. Separate what the source claims from what current market or news context actually confirms — do not take the so

"We're trading on TxFlow/Arcus because that's the only opportunity right now"
Meanwhile i'm trading on a stealth perp dex that doesn't even have socials yet, with a dozen of my friends
Iykyk

#Trading Bot #我正在 Gate uses the SNXXUSDT futures Martingale bot—come copy-trade
An uptrend has formed, followed by a deep pullback! Get on board now

Gate’s event contracts are really not for ordinary people, so everyone should take note. The prices of 5-minute up/down prediction event contracts, according to the customer service response, “are not settled based on the Gate spot or index pages,”
If that’s what customer service is saying, then what’s the point of playing? If you want it to fall, it falls; if you want it to rise, it rises. Whether you win or lose is mostly up to your platform.

$SOL
Rejected from 123.77, now bouncing off 105.72 support. Price is below all three MAs—bearish structure, but showing a relief bounce. Break above 110.72 triggers recovery; failure retests 105.72. Momentum cooling—wait for the close.
Entry Zone: 109.00 – 110.00
TP1: 110.72
TP2: 116.45
TP3: 120.16
Stop-Loss: 104.00
#SOL #ShareWeekly #GateAtTOKEN2049 #GateWCTCS9GlobalTradingCompetition #BTCPullsBackTo81000

Would you dare buy UNI at $7.3?
A month ago, nobody wanted it at $6.7. When it surged to $10.9 in September, the whole market shouted, “The DeFi king is back.” Now it’s at $7.3, and you’re panicking again. Just now, the rebound to $7.8 failed completely, and the price is hovering around the $7.0 support. Is this “the final shakeout before the main uptrend,” or has the fee switch catalyst already been fully priced in?
First, the surface view: the catalyst landed, but the price fell instead.
UNI retraced all the way from the early-October high of $10.9 to $7.0, a decline of about 30%. It was sti

When I was little, I was abducted and sold by human traffickers. In my memory, I was playing on this road, on this street. Does anyone know where this is? Could you please tell me? I want to go home. Kind-hearted people.

Will the US military strike Iran again before the end of the month?
The US has briefed Israeli Chief of Staff Zamir that operations against Iran may resume in the coming weeks; the Pentagon has instructed CENTCOM to prepare for war, with energy and nuclear facilities potentially among the targets. But Trump has publicly said there will be no strike before the November 3 midterm elections. Whether they strike still depends on his final decision.
If they really strike before the end of the month, will BTC dump first or surge first?

I'm on the hunt for a #memecoin with a community that's READY TO MOON!🚀 Share your favorite and let's blast off together! 📊💥

#Gate净流入1.26亿美元位列行业第三
💰 $126 MILLION IN NET INFLOWS: WHY GATE DESERVES ATTENTION AND WHY GT IS MY TOP WATCHLIST PRIORITY
1. 🚀 $126 MILLION IN NET INFLOWS: GATE’S GROWING MOMENTUM
Gate reportedly recorded approximately $126 million in net inflows over the past month, ranking third among centralized exchanges globally. With more than 61 million users across 150+ countries and regions, Gate continues to strengthen its presence in the digital asset industry.
For me, this development deserves attention because capital flows, user adoption, liquidity, and ecosystem growth are important factors w

Sold out instantly🎉
GPT5X 20X 50X top-ups will be restocked and listed again at 12 noon tomorrow; other top-up services are operating normally.