#BTC收复79000美元 Has Bitcoin’s most difficult phase passed? Former Credit Suisse risk chief bullish on $150k
Bitcoin has returned to around $80k, and the market mood is clearly different from before.
Groups that had been quiet for some time are starting to see people talk again, profit screenshots have reappeared in social media feeds, and those who previously said “this cycle is over” have begun studying the market again. That’s how markets work: once prices rise, confidence often recovers faster than prices.
At this moment, CK Zheng, former global valuation risk chief at Credit Suisse and current co-founder and chief investment officer of ZX Squared Capital, offered an interesting view: the most difficult phase of Bitcoin’s current cycle may already be over, and it could reach $150k by the end of 2027.
If this view proves correct, then the biggest difference between this market cycle and the past may not be how far Bitcoin rises, but that the people buying Bitcoin, the market’s funding structure, and the industry’s underlying environment have all changed.
This downturn is indeed different from 2022
Anyone in crypto during 2022 probably remembers that year vividly.
After Luna collapsed, the market fell like a row of dominoes. Three Arrows Capital ran into trouble, Celsius suspended withdrawals, Voyager went bankrupt, and finally FTX triggered a massive explosion across the entire industry.
The most frightening part of that bear market was not merely the price decline.
It was the sudden realization that platforms and institutions you had considered large and powerful could be operating normally one day, only to tell you a few days later that your funds were gone. Many people did not lose their coins through trading; the platforms simply disappeared.
One point Zheng raised this time is particularly worth considering.
He believes that the current market correction is more like volatility in a gradually maturing asset class, rather than the successive collapse of the entire industry’s credit system seen in 2022. Although the market has also fallen, and altcoins have dropped even more severely than many expected, at least we have not seen the kind of situation from that period in which an industry giant imploded every few days.
This shows that while the market may still fall, the industry’s overall ability to withstand shocks has indeed strengthened somewhat.
At $80k, Bitcoin’s biggest change is not its price, but who is buying it
In the past, whenever Bitcoin rose, people’s favorite phrase was: “Retail investors have gone crazy again.”
Looking at it now, Bitcoin’s market has become increasingly complex. ETFs, listed companies, traditional financial institutions, asset management firms, and a growing number of businesses are all beginning to participate in Bitcoin through different channels.
This will bring a very noticeable change to the market.
In the past, during major market declines, funds within the crypto sector mainly trampled over one another. Now, when the market falls sharply, a group of potential buyers from outside the sector is beginning to emerge. They may not watch candlestick charts every day, and they will not immediately sell just because the price drops 10% in an hour.
Of course, this does not mean Bitcoin will never suffer another sharp crash.
It simply means that the logic underlying market bottoms may be different from before. In the past, it may have been that nobody bought after everyone became desperate. Now, more institutions are beginning to ask: “At this price, should I allocate some?”
Why has Bitcoin been able to surge back toward $80k?
This latest rally cannot simply be attributed to a single piece of news.
Judging from market discussions, the regulatory environment, institutional funds, US fiscal issues, and the dollar’s long-term purchasing power are all influencing how investors view Bitcoin.
Let’s start with US debt.
The US government’s debt problem has become increasingly difficult to ignore in recent years, and the interest it needs to pay each year is also rising. If it continues to rely on increasing debt to maintain fiscal spending, the market will naturally begin discussing the dollar’s purchasing power over the long term.
That is also why gold has remained a major focus of global markets recently.
Bitcoin has once again been brought into this discussion.
In the past, many people bought Bitcoin because they believed it would rise.
Now, more and more people are beginning to consider another question: if currencies continue to depreciate over the long term, where should I keep my assets?
Gold is one option.
Bitcoin is beginning to become another.
Bitcoin’s biggest tailwind now may not be rate cuts, but regulation
Zheng placed particular emphasis on changes in the US regulatory environment.
I think many people in crypto may underestimate this.
For retail investors, regulation often means restrictions. But for large institutions, clear regulation instead means they finally know how to participate.
What was the biggest problem in the past?
An institution wanting to buy Bitcoin might ask: who will ultimately regulate this asset? Could the rules suddenly change? If I participate now, might I discover years later that I have crossed a regulatory red line?
Retail investors do not have to consider so much.
Funds worth billions of dollars do.
That is why the US legislative discussions surrounding crypto market structure, including the CLARITY Act, have attracted such intense market attention.
If the rules become increasingly clear in the future, the barriers to more institutions entering the market will decline.
Without rules, large institutions dare not enter; once the rules are clear, they may truly begin allocating capital.
What could drive $150k? The answer may not be the next halving
Many people still like to view Bitcoin through the lens of the past. Four-year cycles. Halvings. Bull markets. Bear markets. Then another halving.
This pattern was indeed highly effective in the past, but personally, I do not think it can be applied mechanically in the future.
Because after ETFs emerged, Bitcoin’s market underwent major changes.
In the past, the market mainly focused on miners, whales, exchanges, and retail investors. Now that more and more traditional financial capital has entered, they are looking at completely different things.
They watch the Federal Reserve. Interest rates. The dollar. US Treasury bonds. Asset allocation ratios.
So future Bitcoin cycles may still exist, but their pace may not be exactly the same as before.
I even think the market may develop a new pattern: longer periods of gains, but less frantic than before; more pullbacks along the way, but not necessarily the kind of continuous decline that once made nobody dare to touch it.
That would instead look more like a gradually maturing major asset class.
Institutions can also fear missing out
There was once a classic term in crypto: FOMO.
Fear of missing out.
It generally referred to retail investors.
They saw others making money, could not sit still, and rushed in. After they bought, the market began to fall, leaving them stuck at the top.
But now, I think a new kind of FOMO is emerging: institutional FOMO.
If Bitcoin rises all the way to $100k, $120k, or even $150k, while more and more peers have already allocated to Bitcoin, some large institutions may face an awkward question: “Why has everyone else bought it while we haven’t?”
For fund managers, losing money is not always the hardest thing to explain.
Missing a major opportunity that every peer profited from may be even harder to explain.
So what is truly worth watching in Bitcoin’s future is not how much any one institution announces it has bought, but whether a trend emerges in which more and more institutions begin to feel that not allocating to Bitcoin has itself become a risk.
If that happens, the market may enter a new phase.
But don’t see $150k and assume it will be an effortless ride
Bitcoin’s renewed move toward $80k does not mean it will definitely head straight to $150k.
There may still be many major pullbacks between $80k and $150k. Short-term capital remains abundant in the market, the macro environment can change at any time, and ETF inflows are even less likely to remain steady every day.
Crypto never runs out of black swans.
So the most dangerous thing now is not being bearish.
It is seeing Bitcoin return to $80k and assuming we are back in 2021, then going all-in, using leverage, and even believing that $150k is already a sure thing.
When the next major pullback arrives, these people are often the first to be shaken out. Over the years, the easiest mistake to make in crypto has been this: during a bear market, believing Bitcoin will never recover, then after it rises a little, believing it will never fall.
I think Bitcoin is now at a very critical point
If I had to describe the current market, I would say it looks neither like a full bull market has begun nor like the depths of despair in a bear market.
It is more like someone who has just recovered from a serious illness.
You cannot say they are immediately ready to run a marathon, but at least they are no longer in the most dangerous phase.
In the 2022 market, people were worried about whether the entire industry would collapse.
What is the market discussing now?
When will regulation become clearer?
When will ETF inflows continue to return?
Will companies continue buying?
Will the US debt problem lead more capital to seek out new assets?
You will find that the questions people are discussing have changed.
The market is gradually moving from “Will this industry die?” to “What will this industry become?”
Rather than focusing on $150k, it is more important to watch several practical questions.
Will the US regulatory environment continue to improve?
Can Bitcoin ETF inflows continue to return?
Will the US debt and dollar purchasing power problems worsen further?
Will more institutions move from “researching Bitcoin” to “formally allocating to Bitcoin”?
These questions may be more important than studying a single candlestick every day.
Bitcoin’s return to $80k has restored many people’s confidence.
In the past, when people bought Bitcoin, they asked: “How much higher can it go?”
In the future, more institutions may ask: “If Bitcoin continues to become an important asset, why haven’t we allocated to it?”
The difference between these two questions is enormous.
And whether Bitcoin can ultimately reach $150k or go even further may be hidden in this shift.
$BTC
