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#美联储利率决议倒计时 #每周来晒 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 29; Warsh will hold a press conference at 2:30. Markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged, with the probability at around 90%; expectations for another rate hike in December remain high. The current target range is 3.75%–4.00%.
The impact on BTC mainly depends on three scenarios:
· No change + dovish signals: The dollar and Treasury yields weaken, and BTC may rise initially before turning volatile. The key is whether inflation concerns are downplayed and a December rate hike is played down.
· No change + hawkish signals: Greater emphasis on persistent inflation, while keeping a December rate hike on the table. Treasury yields and the dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on BTC, especially testing support around $80,000. This is currently the more common baseline view.
· Unexpected 25-basis-point hike: Directly raises financing costs, and risk assets usually fall first. BTC volatility would increase significantly, but markets have priced in a very low probability of a hike, so the actual impact will depend on positioning ahead of the announcement.
BTC is currently near $81,000, in a recovery rebound phase ahead of the decision. What will truly determine the subsequent direction is the wording on the December rate path during the press conference, rather than whether rates are raised this time.