SunnyOk

It’s been a long time since I shared some random thoughts, so here are a few. First, after the rate-hike news was announced during the session, the market launched a volume-backed rebound, with morning trading volume down by 50 billion before turning to an increase of 100 billion by late morning; second, technology and semiconductors did not follow the adjustment two days ago at a key level and instead rebounded, indicating that the bottom for this semiconductor move has been reached; third, gold closed above 4283, with support holding effectively, and is expected to fluctuate around 4340, whi

ETH/USDT Market Notes (2084-2085, down about 0.5%)
Overall qualitative summary: A low-level grind within a downward channel, not a reversal, is a market maker’s game of feeding liquidity at both ends within the wide box of 2050-2120, eating spreads.
Yesterday’s price kept bouncing within the consolidation zone of the moving averages at 2090-2120. Today, it directly tested again at 2053-2060, rebounded but pressed very hard. The most obvious change compared to yesterday is—rebound is increasingly weak, even 2120 can’t hold steadily, indicating buying interest is there but not enough; the demand

ETH/USDT Market Overview (Current Price ~2089)
Perspective: Liquidity Market Making / Order Book Structure
1. Current Market Situation: Weak Consolidation, Waiting for Direction
ETH is currently stuck in a descending channel, showing weak signs of repair. Yesterday, it was still grinding around the 2097-2120 area near the moving averages, but today it has dropped below. Now it’s watching the support band at 2083-2060. Above, a long line of long-term moving averages is pressing down—getting back up is hard.
• Short term (15m/1h): The Bollinger Bands are tightening, with the moving averages all

Market Overview: ETH Structure and Liquidity Observation
1. Core Range and Watershed
The current market rhythm is completely stuck within the 2080-2120 oscillation box, market makers are profiting from volatility on both sides, with no trending move.
• Bullish Key Zone (2120-2135): This is not only the moving average and previous high but also the 0.382 retracement level. Only when the daily chart stabilizes above this range can the bullish structure be confirmed, sweeping out liquidity above 2180.
• Bearish Defense Line (2060-2080): This overlaps with the recent low and the 0.5 Fibonacci leve

Yesterday's decline + today's rebound reasons (market overview)
• Yesterday's decline: mainly due to leveraged liquidations chain reaction + macro/market sentiment drag. Recently, the crypto market experienced multiple rounds of selling pressure (ETH led the decline), with significant liquidation of derivatives long positions (ETH-related liquidations were prominent in the past 24 hours, mainly longs). The ETH/BTC ratio is weak, with funds rotating from ETH to BTC or other assets. Macro factors may include US stock/interest rate expectations and risk aversion.
• Today's rally: short covering +

Thank you, Master @余乐交易日记, Senior Brother @军师在摸鱼i, @几百万唾手可得, @你家对门陈胜, and all the elders for feeding me. #Gate广场五月交易分享

Today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Preview: U.S. April NFP expected +62K (previously 178K, a significant drop). Release time around 20:30 Beijing time tonight (8:30 PM Eastern Time). 
• Better than expected (>100K+): US dollar strengthens $ETH , US Treasury yields rise → negative for risk assets, ETH likely to break down (testing below 2260).
• In line with/weaker than expected: easing rate hike expectations → short-term bullish for ETH, US stocks/risk assets rebound, ETH may rebound to test 2320+.
• Black swan/revisions: data volatility, combined with unemployment rate and wage data. Historicall