Today is Saturday, with no trading, so I’d like to share some knowledge about gold. I’ve roughly summarized a few things we need to pay attention to beyond the indicators.
The linkage among gold, the US Dollar Index, and crude oil is as follows:

1. Different asset attributes: The dollar is an interest-bearing asset, while gold and crude oil are non-interest-bearing assets.

2. Normal logic: When the US Dollar Index rises, gold and crude oil fall; conversely, when gold and crude oil rise, the US Dollar Index falls, showing an inverse relationship.

3. Special circumstances: When geopolitics or war comes into play, this inverse relationship may fail, with all three rising or falling together.

4. The turning point at the end of February: Crude oil surged due to an imbalance between supply and demand, pushing up inflation expectations. The rate cuts the market had originally expected were delayed or even replaced by rate hikes. Gold, already at historical highs, lost its support for further gains and began to retreat.

5. When looking at crude oil, focus on the Brent crude continuous contract, as it better reflects supply and demand in the Middle East and is more suitable for trend analysis.

6. Different impact rhythms: The US Dollar Index exerts immediate intraday pressure on gold, while crude oil puts cyclical pressure on gold through inflation and rate-hike expectations.

7. If supply recovers in the future, the three will return to their traditional inverse relationship and move up or down together.

8. Recently, despite crude oil remaining at high levels and the dollar surging, gold has not retraced significantly because crude oil’s high prices are supply-and-demand driven, while gold’s safe-haven attribute has also supported the bottom.
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