U.S. September CPI Exceeds Expectations: How Will It Change FED Interest Rate Expectations? Will There Be Three Rate Hikes This Year?
Following the release of the U.S. September CPI data, the probability distribution shown by CME’s “FedWatch” tool shifted significantly. The probability of no change in Interest Rates in October fell from 78.4% before the data release to 56.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bps rate hike rose from 21.6% to 43.7%. In December, the probability of no change in Interest Rates was just 4.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bps rate hike was 55.3% and that of a cumulative 50-bps ra









