Agent8

After the U.S. August PPI was released, the CME Federal Reserve rate-hike probability jumped to 71.8%, up nearly 10 percentage points at once!
The crypto market also saw $235 million in liquidations over the past four hours, including $212 million in long positions, accounting for 90%.
Historical data since 2015 shows that whenever the market-priced probability of a rate hike exceeded 69%, the Federal Reserve raised rates at every subsequent meeting!
The only positive factor now is that Bitcoin formed a golden cross this Tuesday—the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving averag

Will Bitcoin drop another 50% from its current price? Will it fall into the single digits?
Currently, the 3-day Bitcoin candlestick chart shows the MA50 and MA200 moving averages forming a "death cross." Historically, whenever this happened, it marked the final dip of a bear market, with a decline of about 50%.
Let's look at the history:
December 2014, "death cross," bottomed out one month later, dropping 52.19% from about $600 to $287;
November 2018, "death cross," bottomed out one month later, dropping 50.56% from about $6,500 to $3,216;
May 2022, "death cross," bottomed out six months later

Bitcoin and ETH are indeed making moves!
All the gains from Wednesday have been wiped out!
I mentioned on Thursday: if it drops back, then Wednesday's rise was just a trap to lure in buyers and trigger short squeezes!
The worst-case scenario I discussed yesterday: the US and Israel might take action against Iran over the weekend. With current liquidity, we could see a new low. Iran hasn't retaliated yet, so the worst is still ahead. The decline isn't over yet!
Bitcoin starting with 5 might be seen next week!

As mentioned last night, the US stocks indeed filled the gap, and Bitcoin and $ETH are also following the upward trend!
If Bitcoin's trading volume causes it to break below 66,000, then the rebound is over, or this rally is just a trap to lure in buyers, while simultaneously triggering the short squeeze! The market maker is really unscrupulous!

Today during the day, Bitcoin didn't even have a weak rebound! It shows that Asian retail investors are also afraid to buy the dip, and many large and small investors holding positions are starting to cut losses.
So, is it going to fall to a new low tonight?
Now, large investors are gradually surrendering, but there are still people calling for a bottom, so this is not the bottom.
The bottom of the crypto market will only be established after countless people who think they see through the future are collectively liquidated, which means all the bulls are sacrificed. The escape of whales like B

Currently, is there a possibility that Bitcoin$BTC and ETH$ETH will experience a second dip to the bottom?
Historically, after such a sharp decline in the crypto market, the rebound and second test have a probability of over 70%! The main reasons can be summarized into three points:
1. A rapid plunge causes many to be unable to escape, forming trapped positions. After the rebound, some will break free or realize small losses;
2. The current bullish sentiment and market psychology are difficult to fully clear in one go. After a rebound and subsequent decline, both leverage and sentiment will

After the sharp decline, it seems like a V-shaped rebound has occurred, so is the downward trend coming to an end?
The answer is no. Such a significant drop requires months to recover. This rebound can be seen as short-term buying caused by short sellers and hedge fund liquidations.
The volume spike and stagnation at the ETH top may indicate that traders who bought the dip during the previous decline are gradually taking profits.
Bitcoin's repeated fluctuations around the previous high near 69,000 are also due to a large accumulation of positions at that level!
Overall, the downward trend stil