#我的七夕交易分享

$BTC ‌
CRYPTO MARKET REVIEW | AUG 19

Bitcoin has staged a meaningful rebound, but the market is still far from a confirmed trend reversal.

BTC is back above $65,000, currently around $65,066, while total crypto market capitalization sits near $2.29T and Bitcoin dominance remains around 56.5%. SOL led the major-coin recovery with a gain of more than 3%, while ETH and XRP also moved higher.

The key question now is simple:

Is this the beginning of a new uptrend — or just a short-covering bounce inside a larger correction?

THE BULLISH SIDE

Institutional demand is showing signs of returning.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $189M of net inflows on August 18, while the previous week saw approximately $854M in inflows. If this continues, it could become one of the strongest signals that larger investors are beginning to rebuild exposure.

Regulatory developments are also improving the long-term backdrop. Proposed SEC rules could create clearer registration exemptions and safer financing pathways for crypto projects, potentially reducing regulatory uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit continues to strengthen the long-term Bitcoin narrative around monetary debasement and scarce digital assets.

BUT MACRO IS STILL FIGHTING THE BULLS

The biggest threats are coming from traditional markets.

The U.S.-Iran situation and Strait of Hormuz risks are keeping energy markets under pressure, with Brent crude near $91.

More importantly, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5.337%, its highest level since 2007.

High oil prices plus elevated long-term yields create a difficult environment for speculative assets.

Crypto may be recovering, but macro liquidity has not fully turned supportive yet.

BTC TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

BTC has reclaimed $65K and moved back above its 20-day moving average.

However, the $68K area remains the major short-term resistance.

The rebound also appears heavily influenced by short covering. Approximately $248M in short positions were liquidated, almost three times the long liquidations.

That tells us the rally has momentum — but it does not yet prove that fresh spot demand has fully returned.

My key levels:

Support: $64K
Major resistance: $68K

A clean break and hold above $68K would significantly improve the structure.

Failure to defend $64K could reopen the path toward $63K.

SENTIMENT IS RECOVERING

The Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 46, up from 41 and significantly above the 31 reading seen two days earlier.

Sentiment is still technically in Fear, but the direction is improving.

At the same time, Bitcoin volatility is sitting near historical lows. Historically, extremely compressed volatility often precedes a major expansion move.

The direction, however, remains unknown.

MY CURRENT VIEW

I remain cautiously bullish, but I would not chase this rebound with aggressive leverage.

The market is currently caught between two forces:

ETF inflows + regulatory progress + easing fear

versus

high Treasury yields + elevated oil prices + geopolitical risk.

The next major confirmation will likely come from ETF flows, macro yields and BTC’s reaction around $68K.

August 20 Fed minutes and the Jackson Hole developments could add another volatility catalyst.

For now, the message is clear:

$64K is the line to defend.
$68K is the level to conquer.

Until BTC proves it can reclaim the upper resistance zone, this remains a recovery attempt — not a confirmed bull trend.