#每周来晒 #美联储9月纪要偏鹰 October hike? Most likely "dovish"—but no one is pricing the "tail risk" of CPI exceeding expectations
I. Will there be another hike in October? My view: most likely not—the bar for "making it two months in a row" is too high
The logic is simple:
- September just saw a hike (3.75-4.00%, the first resumption of hikes since 2023)—consecutive monthly hikes have been "extreme action" in the Fed's history, requiring a "cliff-like deterioration" in the data
- Payrolls were only 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%—the labor market does not support consecutive hikes
- The minutes said "most officials expect one more hike this year," but did not say "one more hike in October"—leaving room for maneuver
So, a CPI upside surprise → October odds jump from <20% to 30-40% → the market gets "nervous again"; but for an October hike to actually happen, we would need "hot CPI + another payrolls collapse + officials talking tough" all three together—the odds are still not high. CPI's role is not to "decide October," but to "determine the December and next year's path."
II. How will the CPI scenario play out? Two versions, opposite directions
Scenario A: CPI cools (core monthly increase ≤0.2%) → October is completely off the table, December odds also fall → Treasury yields decline and the dollar weakens → BTC rebounds to $85K+, while U.S. AI hardware stocks get a new lease on life. This is the bulls' scenario.
Scenario B: CPI exceeds expectations (monthly increase ≥0.3%) → October odds return to 30-40%, and December becomes "a done deal" → the 30-year Treasury yield surges back above 5.8%, the dollar continues strengthening → BTC tests $82K again, with $80K in sight if it breaks. This is the bears' scenario.
Oil prices returning above $100 (Brent) + the situation in the Middle East mean the probability of "sticky" inflation is not low—don't assume CPI will definitely cool.
III. Impact on crypto and U.S. stocks: BTC is waiting for judgment at $82K, while U.S. stocks struggle to survive in the "gap" under 5.7% Treasury yields
- Crypto: $82K is the courtroom—CPI cooling → hold and rebound; CPI surging → breakdown toward $80K. Today's $550 million in liquidations has already washed out leverage once; the direction depends entirely on the data
- U.S. stocks: 30-year Treasury yield at 5.72% (the highest since 2002) + dollar at 102—high-valuation assets are all under pressure. AI hardware (Micron rising 4% against the trend) has "earnings protection," but unless yields fall, any rebound is just "jumping the gun"
- Don't forget the linkage: Treasuries are the "pricing anchor" for global risk assets—if they don't turn back, neither crypto nor U.S. stocks can fly solo
IV. Has the market's expectations been "fully priced in"? The answer is: half and half
Already fully priced in: "no October hike"—with odds below 20%, traders have already lined up; "hawkish minutes"—BTC did not crash after the minutes were released (it was hit by Treasuries + the dollar, not by the minutes).
Not fully priced in: the tail risk of "CPI exceeding expectations"—the market currently assumes that "CPI will cool and December is the real focus"; if 10/14 proves that wrong, it will be a "double whammy": higher rate expectations + Treasuries making new highs.
This is the real "asymmetry": downside risk is even less priced in than upside risk.
An October hike will most likely be a "false alarm," but a CPI upside surprise would be a "real landmine"—the market has heavily priced in "no hike" but not enough "blowout" risk. Don't take a heavy position before CPI; after CPI, use $82K to determine the direction.
This week's market is like the night before an exam—everyone knows there will be a "test" (CPI), but no one knows "how difficult the questions will be." Don't guess the questions; wait for the paper. $82K is the "passing line": if it breaks, hand in the paper and leave; if it holds, wait for the results.
Are you waiting for CPI or have you already taken a side with your position? Let's discuss in the comments 👇
