MSTR has outperformed BTC by 10-20 percentage points annually over three years, while the $BTC price action only gives 0.1%
$BTC currently stands at 85645.2, 24h -0.3%. I’ll show my hand first: bearish. 9 hours ago, the market was abuzz over MSTR outperforming BTC over a 3-year holding period, with an annual excess return of over 10-20 percentage points. The price only moved from 85561.79 to 85649.61, +0.1%; failing to respond to positive news means weakness.
Positive news without a price rise is a dull knife. Funding rates are neutral, OI versus the archive is 0%, and the volume ratio is still shrinking at 0.858. The story is over, and no one is actually bringing in fresh capital.
External funds are also pulling out: crypto-concept stocks COINBASE -1.32% and MARA -1.79%. Profit-taking by holders has not yet been fully absorbed.
The positioning is awkward too: the Fear & Greed Index is 73, leaning greedy, while RSI at 64.5 is relatively strong but failing to break higher. The daily chart has fallen for 2 straight days, and the 30d gain is only 6.61%—a painful grind at the upper end.
An alert for widening high-yield bond spreads 2 hours ago only managed to squeeze out +0.03%.
Resistance above: 86510.1 (1h SAR pressure)
Support below: 81526.3 (daily MA30)
Open a short directly at the current price; cut losses and exit if it rises above 86510.1, and add to the short if it breaks below 81526.3, targeting further downside. Like and follow, and I’ll alert you immediately when a key level breaks.
$BTC
$BTC currently stands at 85645.2, 24h -0.3%. I’ll show my hand first: bearish. 9 hours ago, the market was abuzz over MSTR outperforming BTC over a 3-year holding period, with an annual excess return of over 10-20 percentage points. The price only moved from 85561.79 to 85649.61, +0.1%; failing to respond to positive news means weakness.
Positive news without a price rise is a dull knife. Funding rates are neutral, OI versus the archive is 0%, and the volume ratio is still shrinking at 0.858. The story is over, and no one is actually bringing in fresh capital.
External funds are also pulling out: crypto-concept stocks COINBASE -1.32% and MARA -1.79%. Profit-taking by holders has not yet been fully absorbed.
The positioning is awkward too: the Fear & Greed Index is 73, leaning greedy, while RSI at 64.5 is relatively strong but failing to break higher. The daily chart has fallen for 2 straight days, and the 30d gain is only 6.61%—a painful grind at the upper end.
An alert for widening high-yield bond spreads 2 hours ago only managed to squeeze out +0.03%.
Resistance above: 86510.1 (1h SAR pressure)
Support below: 81526.3 (daily MA30)
Open a short directly at the current price; cut losses and exit if it rises above 86510.1, and add to the short if it breaks below 81526.3, targeting further downside. Like and follow, and I’ll alert you immediately when a key level breaks.
$BTC


