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David_TAO

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David's Trading Notes
November 2, 2026
I. Market Rhythm
Macro: With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, this is a week with significant macroeconomic influence, and market volatility may increase.
Structure: The crypto market has already undergone a fairly substantial correction. This week, the key is to watch whether the rebound can further develop into a trend reversal
$ETH Today's plan: Favor buying dips, with shorting rallies as a secondary strategy
Buy the pullback: Watch 2262 and 2248. Wait for a bullish engulfing signal on the 5-minute timeframe before entering
Buy the breakout: Wa
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ETH-1.26%
The Year After Midterm Elections Has Historically Seen Stronger Performance in US Stocks
With less than a week to go until the midterm elections, I have written many similar assessments since 2022. Historical data shows that US stocks often perform better after midterm elections—sometimes even better than in presidential election years.
Based on calendar-year statistics for the S&P 500 Price Index, there were 19 midterm election years from 1950 to 2022, with an average gain of 4.6%; 11 of those years closed higher. In the 19 years following midterm elections, the average gain was 17.2%, with 1
US500+0.56%
BTC-0.67%
Choice is important
#BTC大跌
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BTC-0.67%
David's Trading Notes
October 29, 2026
Following last night's FOMC➕ and Warsh's neutral remarks➕, Google led tech stocks sharply lower after earnings were released. The broad market's major rebound hasn't come as quickly as expected, and more correction is needed
$ETH
Intraday today: mainly a correction. The correction isn't over yet
1. Trading range: 2293-2370. Trade in whichever direction the price breaks out, and try going long or short at either end
2. Two lower levels for rebound longs: 2254 and 2203. Watch the market and go long based on the strength of the rebound; you can place a lim
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ETH-1.26%
#美联储利率决议倒计时 Rates held steady
Next, the focus is on Microsoft and Google’s earnings reports
These reports are extremely important
MSFT-1.60%
#Countdown to the Fed rate decision
🚨Fed FOMC statement:
The Fed holds rates steady
Passed by a vote of 10 in favor and 2 opposed
Fewer than three votes
This is bullish, this is bullish
David's Trading Notes
October 28, 2026
I. Intraday Plan $ETH
Today's intraday outlook: Focus on buying dips; the triangle consolidation has broken upward
Long | Focus on a pullback to 2332; go long if a bullish engulfing candle forms on the five-minute chart
The purple zone at 2370-74 is key 45-minute resistance; go long decisively on a high-volume close above it
Short | Watch 2433, the bulls' major target, which is also a spot for a wick-based short on the lower timeframe (five-minute)
This is a super macro week: earnings + FOMC + Warsh's speech. Volatility will increase as expectations play
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ETH-1.26%
When a single trade can cover your travel expenses for the past few months, you realize you’re already far removed from certain people.
When you can see a mountain clearly, you realize you’re already far away from it.
When you can see someone clearly, it means you’re already far away from them.
When you can see the essence of certain things, and understand at a glance why they say what they say, you’re already far removed from those things.
When you read certain news and know what it’s trying to say, you’re already far removed from that junk news.
After you’ve been through hardship and pain, w
I'll say it again: Now is the best opportunity to go long.
Anyone not going long is an idiot. The big one is coming!!!
David's Trading Notes
October 27, 2026
I. Super Macro Week
October 27 to November 3 have historically been relatively good trading days. The market is moving sideways, gearing up for the FOMC
Today's intraday plan: Wait. Follow after a breakout in either direction; no more giving money away on intraday scalps
II. ETH $ETH (Chart 1)
Long | Watching 2325; enter after a one-hour close above.
.
Short | Watching 2280; enter after a one-hour close below.
ETH breakout target: 2434; breakdown target: 2203. Use these levels to reduce positions and assess strength
III. BTC $BTC (Chart 2)
Long | Watchi
ETH-1.26%
BTC-0.67%
After buying in the bottom range, the most important thing is not to keep checking the candlestick chart. Bottoms are a grind and test your patience, so eat, drink, and go out and have fun as usual. When the time comes, the price will naturally rise. After such a big drop, plenty of people are more anxious than we are—they’ll figure something out
This is a huge macro week. Here’s a quick list of the major events for easy reference:
1. Israel’s election is on Tuesday. The importance of Israel, given its close father-son-like relationship with the U.S., goes without saying. Israel votes this week, followed by the U.S. midterms next week. Many things can only move forward once the political situation stabilizes. This one is top-tier in the short term and solid in the long term.
2. SK Hynix reports earnings before 8 a.m. Wednesday. Importance: top-tier.
3. The Fed announces its decision at 2 a.m. Thursday, followed by Warsh’s remarks at 2:
MSFT-1.60%
AMZN-1.55%
SNDK-13.60%
INTC-28.49%
COIN-10.68%
David’s Trading Notes
October 26, 2026
A correction takes both time and room to play out. I believe it has already reached its final stage. Barring a black swan event, there isn’t much room left to fall.
I. Ethereum $ETH
Intraday today: favor buying dips, with selling rallies as a secondary strategy.
1. Look to go long at 2320: wait for a bullish engulfing pattern on the five-minute chart before entering, and try an intraday swing long. Stop out if the price breaks below 2292 (Chart 1).
2. If the price breaks below, consider building long positions at the two levels below: 2251 and 2203. Th
ETH-1.26%
The integration of the two algorithms is nearly complete.
A brief explanation of the two algorithms is shown in Figure 1; the actual algorithms are very complex.
During this altcoin rally, our model detected a collective weakening of Buy Pressure resonance for the first time. This was concentrated between September 28 and early October, when the Little Secretary had already posted alerts in the channel.
Looking back with the new feature, buy-side weakening signals for most coins were concentrated 15–30 days ago (left side of Figure 2).
Using Cat’s Double Divergence confirmation parameters, the
MET-0.33%
PYTH+3.23%
Er Bing is a big bad guy. Never mind, may Er Bing be happy every day—Shenzhen has a crypto trading king
BTC-0.67%
Let me make a hot take:
If you don't bet, you're betting on yourself to lose.
You think you're not betting, but you've been betting all along.
I'm not betting money, but time and energy.
I invest my most valuable time in things I believe can succeed in the future.
If they ultimately don't succeed, then I've lost the bet.
And compared to money, this kind of cost is often much heavier.
Because you can earn back money you lose, but once time has passed, it never comes back.
So in this world, there's no such thing as “winning by not betting.”
You don't bet money, but you're betting your time;
you
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