0xLeslie

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How did this A-share market come about, and how did it fall back again? In reality, it never really had a bull run.
In the closing minutes, the state-backed team stepped in again to give it some support; otherwise, I don’t know how ugly it would have looked.
But falling quickly is also a good thing—hopefully the bottom can shake out soon.
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The capabilities of various large models are at least converging in terms of scores more and more; as long as there are continually open-source base models, it’s only a matter of time before everyone catches up—it's basically a foregone conclusion.
Remember what was said at the start of the year: that 3 would be the worst model this year? As of now, it really can’t get onto the table anymore.
But in the end, when large models fight to the finish, they’re still competing for channels—GLM’s government and enterprise orders, Qwen’s iOS domestic (China) version. The race among AI large models
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BofA is also comparing today’s situation with the internet bubble of 2000.
Many indicators look similar, but many circumstances are also very different. In 2000, any internet company could die instantly because it had no revenue. But today, in fact, this group of the most profitable companies is still holding plenty of cash.
It’s just that they may have overinvested and can’t get the money back. In 2000, it was more like a payment-capacity bubble; now it’s a capex bubble.
Many voices online are comparing the present to 2000, but I actually don’t think it’s very likely that the situation
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🖤7/14 Key events and personal recap
- CPI just came out. Interpretation is positive; it surged directly before the open.
- Korean stocks fell sharply again today, but recovered by the close. Over there, they’ve already started addressing leverage issues, and it should bounce back soon. Korean traders are too crazy about both crypto and stocks.
- It’s earnings season for major companies. It looks like most of them are showing positives, though I don’t know how much is already priced in.
- ChangXin Memory’s planned listing on July 27 has been announced. This is a big signal, and I feel there ma
BTC-0.73%
ESTUN-4.56%
SOXL1.36%
SPCX-5.50%
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🖤 7/13 Key events and personal recap
Recently NQ’s daily chart has been very weak, with risk-off sentiment. Sure enough, on Monday there was a waterfall-style washout of faces, and my A-share position didn’t get out.
- Korea stocks hit another circuit breaker; it’s already becoming normalized. The problem is that individual stocks are too heavily weighted, and the leverage at Samsung and SK hynix is too crowded. Unless this issue is resolved, it’s hard to break the previous high again in the short term.
- The US and Iran continue fighting in the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil surged.
- The S
BTC-0.73%
TSM-0.81%
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Of course, in the short term, I am more optimistic about the implementation and mass production of industrial robots, while humanoid robots are more of a concept and are still in the early stages.
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I've been doing a systematic investment plan in robotics for many days, and I've always felt that now is the inflection point to buy robots. The focus is on allocating domestic robotics stocks and ETFs. I also allocated a bit of US-listed ETFs, but personally, I am more optimistic about the domestic market. The US has the big models, and China is likely to have the robots, thanks to the complete domestic industrial chain. If Europe and the US want to achieve industrial independence, they can only rely on robots, and China will take a new leap by exporting robots, making cheap labor a thing of
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July Market Major Events in One Picture
The 4 Days You Should Watch Most
- 7/2 Nonfarm Payrolls (last employment data before the Fed)
- 7/14 CPI + Big Banks Start Earnings Season
- 7/22–23 Tesla, Intel, and a batch of chip stocks
- 7/29 The month's biggest event: FOMC rate decision + Microsoft/Meta/Google/Amazon earnings on the same day
TSLA-1.27%
INTC-2.73%
MSFT-1.85%
META-2.54%
AMZN-1.10%
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Everyone is waiting for Micron’s earnings report, and near-term capital is leaning defensive.
I don’t think this earnings report will bring major changes to the fundamentals. Storage is, in the end, a supply-driven story. Capacity decisions (wafer investments, process migration, HBM capacity allocation) were already set 6–18 months ago, and most earnings reports are essentially confirmations of facts that have already happened.
What’s truly worth watching is management’s guidance on the next round of supply—especially any signals about FY2027 capital expenditures and bit growth, because th
MU-1.07%
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This time, A-shares' technology sector performed better than expected, not being dragged down by US stocks and Korean stocks.
Most likely, the rally isn't over yet; everyone is still pessimistic about the big A-shares.
Will they be able to perform better in the next few years?
But the overall environment is really bad, that's for sure.
If they can make a breakthrough in AI, it would be the best way to turn the situation around.
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The Huaxi Securities & Nonferrous that was mentioned last time pulled back and then surged again to another daily limit-up.
Yunnan Germanium Industry made a strong pullback; today it broke below 70 and kept pushing higher.
Huaidian Liaoning Energy has been watching from the sidelines and didn’t get in—it’s just too intense.
The world’s underlying foundation is still resources—energy. AI and any technology can’t do without it; if you don’t know what to buy, then buy energy.
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It has risen a bit, $hype hasn't fallen yet
From a certain perspective, if bn takes this step, the valuation of bnb is far more than that, look at the market's pricing of $hood
HYPE0.17%
BNB0.22%
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At the gathering, everyone was talking about U.S. stocks and their biggest holdings.
Something about Micron—Trump calling out stocks like Dell—then SanDisk, SK Hynix, and NVIDIA.
They asked me what I bought, and I just smiled without saying a word, watching $Hakimi quietly resting in my wallet.
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Stop just following Trump to invest in stocks, take a look at his longtime rival Pelosi's track record
- 12-year return +371.2%, win rate 88.4%
- Current holdings worth over $200M
- Quiver backtested "Pelosi Strategy" has accumulated about 10 times since 2014
- Total number of trades around 200; while Trump made over 3,700 trades in Q1 2026
The strongest long-term player in Congress, a master of insider trading.
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Chinese A-shares and U.S. stocks are completely different games.
I feel that A-shares are more like on-chain memes, with no short-selling mechanism; the main players only have one way to survive: find themes, boost expectations, drive up prices, and then distribute; and it's still a meme with daily limit-ups, where information digestion can only be relay-based, not continuous pricing.
U.S. stocks have complete counterparties, with long and short battles, and are "positive-sum games" with contracts that involve earnings and dividends over the long term, creating value just by holding.
Cho
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Opus 4.8 is now live
Fast mode reduces token consumption to 1/3 of what it was in 4.7
And performs better?
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This Zhipu is increasing too much, let's rename it to Ridiculous😂
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