#每周来晒 #美国10月CPI即将公布
My CPI forecast: a stance of cautious neutrality; however, there is a downside (bearish) risk should inflation come in higher than expected.

The core issue is not whether the October CPI figure will increase, but rather whether inflation will land above or below market expectations.

For BTC, the Nasdaq, and other risk assets, the gap between expected and actual inflation may prove more significant than the headline figure itself.

Here is my perspective on how to approach this development:

1. What are market expectations?

November 10, 2026, CPI Preview

Current market expectations:

Indicator Forecast Previous
Headline CPI (monthly) +0.3% +0.6%
Core CPI (monthly) +0.2% +0.3%
Headline CPI (annual) No comparable data for October —

While the anticipated slowdown is promising, inflation remains a concern. Markets are also weighing the possibility of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December.

A key clarification regarding timing: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled the data release for 8:30 AM Eastern Time (ET).

2. Three potential CPI scenarios

High (Above expectations) CPI

Bearish trend (Bear market)

Above +0.3%

* Expectations for interest rate cuts may weaken, or concerns regarding further rate hikes may intensify.
* Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar may strengthen. * BTC and the Nasdaq may face renewed selling pressure.
* I would avoid chasing any rallies that occur ahead of the data release.
Low CPI (below expectations)
Bullish trend
Below +0.3%
* Markets may begin to price in a less restrictive monetary policy.
* BTC could see renewed buying interest.
* The Nasdaq might continue its recovery process.
* Breaking through a resistance level, followed by a successful retest, could provide a stronger entry signal.
Mixed CPI
Uncertain
Headline and core data moving in different directions
* A scenario where headline inflation falls while core inflation remains high (or vice versa).
* Initial market reactions could quickly reverse.
* It would be wiser to wait for confirmation. 3. My BTC trading strategy

Bitcoin is particularly noteworthy, as a CPI figure coming in lower than expected may not, on its own, be enough to reverse the prevailing underlying weakness.

Current market analysis points to the following:

* $73,000–$74,000: A key support zone.
* $70,000: A potential downside target if the support level is broken.
* $80,000: A significant recovery and resistance level.

Analysts also emphasize that for a sustainable recovery, fresh capital inflows into spot ETFs and genuine buying demand are essential.

4. Should one enter a trade before or after the CPI data release? My preference: Wait for the data and the market’s initial reaction.

Strategy Approach
Before CPI Be cautious; avoid taking excessively large positions
Immediately after Observe the initial volatility
15–30 minutes later Look for confirmation in BTC and the Nasdaq
Once confirmed Consider entering a position with a defined stop-loss level

I will be monitoring these four factors in tandem:

* BTC price action and trading volume.
* The direction of Nasdaq futures.
* The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note.
* The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

While the Nasdaq’s gain of approximately 2.7% on November 9th is promising, a single strong session does not necessarily signal a sustained recovery.

5. My final outlook

My baseline expectation: Inflation comes in slightly lower than anticipated.

I estimate that headline CPI could show a moderate decline—perhaps in the 0.2%–0.3% range on a monthly basis—though one should not automatically assume that core inflation will follow the same trend.

Rather than gambling before the announcement, I prefer to wait for confirmation once the data is released.

An important rule: Do not interpret a short-lived relief rally triggered by the CPI data as a permanent shift in the Bitcoin trend. Manage your leverage carefully, and never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

If the inflation data delivers a positive surprise, I will be watching to see if BTC can reclaim the $75,000 level and subsequently push toward $80,000. Additionally, I can monitor BTC's reaction following the CPI (Consumer Price Index) release and prepare a market update covering both bullish (upward) and bearish (downward) scenarios.

Keep an eye on BTC after the CPI release.
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