#CLARITY法案或搁置至2028年
CLARITY Act Delay: What It Means for SBTC and the Crypto Market

My assessment: A delay until 2028 would create a longer period of regulatory uncertainty, but it would not necessarily stop the institutional development of the cryptocurrency market.

The most important distinction is between regulatory progress and regulatory certainty. Stablecoins, tokenized securities, institutional custody and digital-asset infrastructure can continue developing even without comprehensive U.S. crypto market-structure legislation.

1. Why the political situation matters

The November 2026 U.S. midterm elections have changed the legislative landscape: Democrats have won control of both the House and Senate.

However, this does not automatically make the CLARITY Act easier to pass.

There are three important obstacles:

* Senate approval: Major legislation can still require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.

* Bipartisan negotiations: Disagreements over SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, DeFi, stablecoin rewards and ethics provisions remain significant.

* Presidential approval: A Democratic-controlled Congress and Republican president could face substantial disagreements over the final legislation.

The September 15 Senate procedural vote failed 50–49, falling short of the 60 votes required.

Consequently, 2028 is a possible delay scenario, not a confirmed legislative deadline.

2. Why stablecoins and tokenized securities can continue growing

The CLARITY Act is not the only regulatory framework supporting digital assets.

Two important developments deserve attention.

A. Stablecoins: The GENIUS Act

The GENIUS Act was signed into law on July 18, 2025. It establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoin issuers, including requirements involving reserves, redemption, supervision and risk management.

On October 21, 2026, the OCC announced its final implementing regulations, scheduled to take effect on January 18, 2027.

This means stablecoin infrastructure can continue developing independently of the CLARITY Act.

B. Tokenized securities

Tokenized securities can continue operating under existing federal securities legislation and SEC regulatory frameworks.

In March 2026, the SEC issued an interpretation clarifying how federal securities laws apply to certain crypto assets and transactions. In August, it proposed additional rules for crypto-related securities offerings.

However, existing securities laws do not automatically provide the comprehensive market structure framework that CLARITY was intended to establish.

3. Potential impact of a delay until 2028

I would divide the consequences into three periods:

Period Potential market impact
Short term Regulatory uncertainty, volatility and cautious institutional positioning
Medium term Continued stablecoin adoption, tokenization and institutional infrastructure development
Long term Delayed legal certainty, potentially higher compliance costs and slower institutional expansion in some market segments

The biggest issue is not whether crypto innovation stops. It is whether businesses can confidently invest billions of dollars in infrastructure without knowing exactly which regulator has jurisdiction over particular activities.

The SEC and CFTC can make progress through their existing powers, but agency rules are generally less durable than legislation. They can be modified, reversed or challenged in court.

4. What does this mean for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market?

Bitcoin (BTC)

Its monetary and institutional adoption does not depend directly on the CLARITY Act. Regulatory uncertainty could affect sentiment, but Bitcoin’s market performance will also depend on liquidity, interest rates and institutional demand.

Ethereum (ETH)

Uncertainty surrounding digital-asset classification and DeFi regulation could affect ecosystem development, institutional participation and investment products.

Stablecoins

The GENIUS Act provides a separate regulatory foundation. Payment infrastructure, settlement and cross-border applications can continue expanding.

RWA and tokenization

Tokenized securities and other real-world assets can develop under existing legal frameworks, although regulatory fragmentation remains a challenge.

5. An important clarification regarding "SBTC"

One product that uses the abbreviation "SBTC" is the 21Shares Short Bitcoin ETP. This is not a stablecoin; rather, it is an investment product designed to profit from a decline in the price of Bitcoin (a "short" position).

A delay in the CLARITY Act does not automatically confer an advantage upon SBTC. The investment performance of this product depends primarily on Bitcoin’s price movements and the product’s specific "short" (bearish) positioning mechanism.

6. General assessment

My core takeaway is this: The crypto market is entering a phase that may be characterized by fragmentation, rather than a complete cessation of regulatory developments.

In particular, three developments warrant close monitoring:

* Whether the new Congress can reach a bipartisan agreement on a market structure bill by 2027.

* Whether the SEC and the CFTC can establish sufficiently durable rules within the scope of their existing authority.

* Whether the adoption rate of stablecoins and the growth of tokenized financial products will continue to attract institutional capital.

A delay in the CLARITY Act may postpone the establishment of institutional confidence; however, it does not negate the long-term evolution of digital finance.

Investors should distinguish between regulatory uncertainty and the fundamental, grassroots adoption of the sector—as these two factors do not always move in the same direction.

Could the CLARITY Act Be Delayed Until 2028? Is the Long-Term Growth of Crypto at Risk? The potential for the CLARITY Act to be delayed until 2028 adds a new layer of uncertainty to the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory landscape.

However, regulatory uncertainty does not mean that innovation will come to a halt.

Following the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, the Democrats have gained control of both chambers of Congress. Nevertheless, interparty negotiations, Senate voting requirements, and disputes over regulatory jurisdiction could complicate the progress of the bill.

Here are three key developments to watch:

1. Stablecoins May Continue to Evolve

The GENIUS Act has already established a federal framework for payment-focused stablecoins. The implementing regulations for this act are scheduled to take effect in January 2027, providing an independent regulatory foundation for the development of stablecoins.

2. Tokenized Securities Are Not Entirely Dependent on the CLARITY Act

Existing securities laws and regulatory initiatives by the SEC already offer pathways for tokenized financial products. That said, comprehensive market structure legislation would provide greater legal certainty in the long term.

3. Institutional Adoption May Persist Despite Legislative Delays

Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, and the tokenization of real-world assets are driven by distinct regulatory and economic factors. A delay in a major piece of legislation does not automatically undermine the underlying trends in their adoption. My Market Perspective:

I believe investors need to distinguish between short-term regulatory uncertainty and long-term structural growth.

A delay in the CLARITY Act could slow institutional expansion in certain areas, increase compliance costs, and create market volatility. Nevertheless, the development of digital payments, tokenized assets, and blockchain infrastructure can continue under existing frameworks.

The fundamental question is not when the CLARITY Act will be enacted, but whether the United States can establish a predictable regulatory environment that fosters innovation while protecting investors.

What are your thoughts?

Will the CLARITY Act significantly slow down institutional cryptocurrency adoption, or will stablecoins and tokenized assets continue to drive the next phase of digital finance, regardless of progress in Congress?
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