Why have US factories been running non-stop for 10 months? 🧐

The 55.5 ISM manufacturing data released in October is not just a number, it reflects a mood. For a full ten months, factories in America have been in expansion mode. In other words, the wheels are turning, and order books are not closing.

The data itself is as vibrant as its appearance. Production jumped from 56.7 to 59, the strongest pace seen since November 2021. While new orders remained stable at 55.5, employment slightly decreased to 52.4. So there is work, there is production, but the pace of hiring has slowed somewhat.

Why are prices still so hot?

Expansion comes at a cost. Although the price index has fallen from 77.9 to 75.2, it is still very high. Manufacturers surveyed all point to the same thing: steel, aluminum, additional costs on imported products, and oil-based inputs.

This whispers to you that the economy is growing, but this growth isn't cheap. Cost pressures remain on the table. Therefore, strong data doesn't always bring immediate relief.

Is there really a connection between this manufacturing data and the altcoin season?

This is the most intriguing point. Looking at history, an interesting pattern emerges. When the ISM is above 55, it coincides with periods when risk appetite is bolder, and capital tends to be spread across a wider range, not just in the largest assets.

Similar manufacturing increases in 2017 and 2021 coincided with periods when altcoins relatively strengthened against Bitcoin. Conversely, when the ISM falls below 50, as seen at the end of 2025, capital has preferred to remain on the more protected side. But there's a critical distinction here; this is a correlation, not causality.

So why is it said that the altcoin season hasn't started yet? 🤔

Because a single indicator isn't enough. Factories may be in good shape, but money is still cautious. Altcoin season indices have been below 50 for months, with the last reading around 39. This indicates that money is still largely held in core assets.

Some analysts are pointing to the possibility of a structural break. The fact that altcoin dominance is breaking above its own macroeconomic structure for the first time in years suggests, according to some, the possibility of an expansion similar to 2016-2017. The ISM level of 58, in particular, is being discussed as a threshold that has attracted attention in the past.

How does the Fed's near-4% interest rate affect this story?

There's a shadow over all this manufacturing optimism: interest rates. Interest rates are stable in the 3.75% - 4.00% range, and the real interest rate relative to core inflation is still above 1%.

Let's explain this simply. When the economy is strong, the Fed isn't in a hurry. Strong data can delay interest rate cuts. This creates a double-edged sword. On one hand, growth fuels risk appetite, while on the other, high interest rates keep liquidity tight. So, manufacturing data alone doesn't accelerate the process; it can also put the brakes on.

How should you view this picture?

The October data tells us that the US economy has indeed gained strong momentum in manufacturing. History also reminds us that such periods can sometimes coincide with a broader spread of risk.

But history doesn't guarantee the future. The fact that the altcoin index is still low today, that price pressure continues, and that the Fed is cautious shows that the macroeconomic recovery hasn't yet turned into a broad-based rotation.

Therefore, view this data not as a signal, but as a compass. It shows you the direction, but it doesn't chart the course alone. What you need to follow is clear: the Fed's language, liquidity conditions, and whether capital is actually spreading.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
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