#EthereumReclaims$2450 #ShareWeekly $ETH

$2,450 is a number on a screen. What matters is what sits under it and above it. Here’s my read on whether ETH can hold the reclaim.

1. What lifted it
A major US bank expanded its deposit token onto Ethereum’s public mainnet for institutional clients, and ETH rose more than 1% on the news. On top of that, of about $100M liquidated over 24 hours, $64.7M were shorts, around 64% (my math from reported figures). So part of this is an institutional headline and part is shorts covering. The second part tends to fade faster.

2. The supply ledger (my math)
October’s spot ETH ETF outflows are about $1.06B, which is roughly 435,000 ETH at $2,436. The staking exit queue reportedly peaked near 851,000 ETH on October 2, about twice that. About 35% of supply is staked, with a yield around 2.6% (single-source). Exchange reserve data conflicts: one tracker showed +290K ETH over three weeks, while another says reserves are near multi-year lows. I’d treat reserves as unsettled.

3. The floor is a stack
My chart’s support at 2,299.16 and the 99-day average at 2,302.27 are 0.13% apart. One on-chain gauge also puts the average holder’s cost basis at $2,311 (reported). Three different measures sit in a 0.5% band about 6% below price (my math). That’s why $2,300 matters more to me than the round $2,400.

4. The ceiling is two steps
Price is 2,448.99 on my chart.

50-day at 2,551.65: +4.2% (ETH was reportedly rejected there recently)
Resistance at 2,743.08: +12.0%
Support at 2,299.16: -6.1%, and 200-day at 2,154.29: -12.0%
RSI is 43.1 (36.2 yesterday), and the MACD histogram is -10.63 (-19.42 yesterday)

Momentum is repairing, not turned. Reward/risk to the 50-day is about 0.7:1 and to 2,743 about 2:1 (my math), but the second only matters after the first.

5. The scenarios

Hold above 2,450 and clear 2,551: opens the path to 2,743, though flow data would need to cooperate
Chop between 2,300 and 2,550: the base case while ETF flows stay negative
Lose 2,300 on a daily close: the cluster fails and 2,154 comes into view

6. What I’d watch
ETF flows turning positive, the October 28 Fed decision, and whether the squeeze fades without fresh buyers behind it.

My take: a reclaim with ETF outflows is a bounce until flows confirm it. I treat 2,551 as the first real test and 2,300 as the line.

Not financial advice.

Do you trust the reclaim without ETF inflows, or are you waiting for flows first? And is your line on ETH 2,300 or 2,551?

@Gate_Square