#EthereumUpOver71%inQ3
ETH just had its best third quarter ever, up about 71%, ahead of the previous Q3 record of roughly 66.5% from 2025. And yet my daily chart shows ETH down more than 10% from its high. Both facts are true at the same time because they come from two different clocks. Let me read both.

Clock 1: the quarterly clock (the headline)

Up about 71% in Q3, the best on record for that quarter
Spot ETH ETFs took in about $3.1B of net inflows over the quarter, reversing the earlier outflows
A “profit supply” indicator (how much of ETH’s supply is sitting on a profit) moved out of the accumulation zone but stayed well below warning levels. In plain words: the market isn’t overheated by that measure yet
A big holder kept buying every week, and was recently reported to hold roughly 4.9% of all ETH

That is a strong quarter by any standard, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise.

Clock 2: the daily clock (what price is doing now)

ETH is at 2,508, about 10.6% below the 2,807 high. BTC fell about 5% from its own high over the same stretch, so ETH fell roughly twice as hard, which is typical for a higher-beta coin
Price is sitting right on the daily EMA50 (2,502), and also on my purple support near 2,501. That’s two floors on top of each other
Today’s candle wicked down to around 2,400 and recovered, so buyers showed up below
EMA99 is at 2,346 and EMA200 at 2,302, about 6.5% and 8.2% below price, and both are still rising
The daily MACD has crossed down (DIF 3.65 below DEA 40.0), so momentum has cooled

The three RSIs tell three different stories

RSI(6) is 27.8: oversold in the short term
RSI(12) is 38.6: weak in the medium term
RSI(24) is 49.6: neutral in the long term, right at the midline

So: a short-term oversold bounce is possible, the medium trend is soft, and the long trend hasn’t broken. That’s not a crash picture, and it’s not a “buy everything” picture either.

What a record quarter does and doesn’t tell me

It tells me demand showed up. It doesn’t tell me what happens next. The last record Q3 was in 2025, and the following November saw the largest monthly outflow from spot ETH ETFs at that time, about $1.42B. I’m not saying history repeats. I’m saying a record quarter doesn’t protect the next month. Also, recent flows have cooled: in the week ending Oct 2, ETH ETFs saw roughly $138M of net outflows, after about $690M the week before. So the quarter’s strength is real, but the momentum has been fading in the short term.

The macro layer

CPI is on Oct 14, PPI on Oct 15 and the Fed decides on Oct 28. The Fed’s minutes were hawkish, October hike odds are low, and a December hike is mostly priced in. A hot CPI hits high-beta coins like ETH first, so I size smaller this week.

The ladder

Ceilings: 2,600, then 2,675 to 2,696, then 2,755, then 2,807 to 2,827
Floors: 2,502 (EMA50 and support), about 2,400 (today’s wick), 2,346 (EMA99), 2,302 (EMA200)

My plans (my own view, not advice)

Plan A, buy the double floor:

Entry: 2,510 to 2,500
Stop loss: 4H close below 2,440
TP1: 2,600, roughly 1.5R
TP2: 2,695, roughly 2.9R
TP3: 2,807, roughly 4.6R

Plan B, deeper:

Entry: 2,350 to 2,310
Stop loss: 4H close below 2,270
TP1: 2,500, roughly 2.8R
TP2: 2,600, roughly 4.5R

Plan C, reclaim:

Condition: daily close above 2,600
Entry: retest of 2,600 to 2,580
Stop loss: below 2,540
TP1: 2,695, TP2: 2,807, roughly 4.3R

If 2,300 breaks on a daily close: I step aside, the whole quarter’s structure is in question.

Short idea: a failed retest of 2,600 to 2,675 with a stop above 2,720, targeting 2,502 and then 2,400.

Small size, low leverage, orders at levels. Weekend liquidity is thin, so no new leverage on a Saturday night.

My check-in
Calm, light positions, spot untouched, cash kept aside on purpose. I like the quarterly clock for the story, and I trade the daily clock for the entries.

My view: strong quarter, tired week. Two floors under price and a data calendar ahead. Which clock do you trade on, the quarterly one or the daily one?
$ETH

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