My Weekly Market Outlook & Trading Plan | 2nd Week of October

Hello everyone,
In the last few weeks, we have seen a very clear rotation in the crypto market. Funds are not staying in one place; there are rapid shifts from BTC to majors, and from majors to altcoin sectors like AI, RWA, and memes. Volatility is high, but for a disciplined trader, this also means opportunity.
#每周来晒 #布局本周交易
1. Overall Market Overview - What is Happening Right Now?
The market is currently in a critical equilibrium:

Bitcoin (BTC): As mentioned in Citi's latest report, ETF inflows are expected to recover. BTC is consolidating in the $84,750 - $87,000 range. Holding this area gives confidence to the market. However, on-chain data shows spot demand has decreased by about 170k BTC in the last 30 days, so volume tracking is essential.

Ethereum (ETH): Trading around $2,683 and has just completed one of its strongest quarterly performances since 2021. The ETH/BTC ratio is being watched towards the 0.032 level. This will be the most important metric to determine the direction for altcoins in the coming weeks.

On the Macro Side: US Treasury yields and the Fed's interest rate policy are still the main determinants. The fall in expectations for a rate hike in October is positive for risk assets.

In short: Rather than debating whether the bull market is over or a bear market is coming, we are currently in a selective bull / rotation market.
2. My Strategic Answer to This Week's 3 Questions
Question 1: Am I increasing, decreasing, or waiting on my positions?

My Strategy: Gradual Accumulation + Swing Trading Hybrid.

This is not the right time to go all-in, nor is it the right time to stay fully in cash. My plan is to stay 50-60% in spot and allocate 40% for active swing trades.
• Instead of selling in fear on dips, I am buying gradually from pre-determined support levels ( $82,500 and $80,000 for BTC).
• On rallies, I take 25%-30% profit at resistance levels and wait for the pullback again.
• I am staying away from leverage this week. When volatility is high, leverage above 3x-5x turns into a stop hunt.
Question 2: My Focus - Majors, Altcoins, or Tokenized US Stocks?

I divided my portfolio into 3 parts this week:

50% Majors (Safe Haven): BTC and ETH are the backbone. Even if the market falls, they are the fastest to recover. Especially ETH is standing strong with the ETF narrative and upcoming upgrades.

35% Strong Altcoin Sectors (Growth): I am not buying random altcoins. I focused on only 2 sectors:
1. AI + DePIN: Projects that generate real revenue.
2. RWA (Real World Assets): Tokenized stocks actually fall into this category as well. Tokenized US stocks on Gate have become a very good hedging tool this week to track the correlation between the traditional stock market and crypto.
15% Cash / USDT: Opportunity fund. I am holding it for a sudden wick down.
Tokenized US stocks are a logical alternative this week, especially for those who want to take a position on the US market outside of trading hours.

3: My Recent Trades and Plan for This Week
My trade last week: I closed half of my position that I bought at $2,550 ETH at $2,710, a 6.2% swing profit. I am holding the other half. For BTC, I am maintaining my position with a cost of $83,200.

My clear plan for this week:
1. Monday-Tuesday: Watch the market direction. If BTC stays above $84,500, I will expect strengthening in altcoins. If it doesn't hold, I will increase my cash ratio to 25%.
2. Wednesday-Thursday (US Data): Volatility will increase. I will not open new positions on these days, I will only manage my open positions.
3. My Risk Management Rule: The rule of not losing more than 2% of my portfolio in a single trade. There is a must-have stop-loss for every trade.
4. Goal: This week, the goal is not 8-12% portfolio growth, but to stay in the right rotation while preserving capital. Big profits are the result of correct position management.
In conclusion, this market rewards not those who panic, but those who have a plan. For me, the keywords for this week are: Patience, Gradual Buying, Sector Rotation.
What kind of strategy are you following this week? Let's meet in the comments.
This is not financial advice, I am just sharing my own trading plan.
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