#GateSquareMidAutumnReunion

#ETH is at an interesting point right now because the bigger bullish structure has not completely broken, but the momentum that pushed it toward $2,660 has clearly cooled.

ETH is trading around $2,393 today, down roughly 3.3% over 24 hours and about 4.2% over the last seven days. The important part is the sequence: ETH pushed to around $2,666 on September 11, reached roughly $2,614 on September 14, and then suffered a sharp rejection on September 15, with price falling toward $2,360 before stabilizing around $2,400.

That makes $2,400 more than just a round number. It is the area ETH is currently fighting to hold after losing the $2,500 region. Above it, the market can still attempt to rebuild momentum. Below it, the September 15 low around $2,360 becomes the key line in the sand. A clean break there would mean the recent pullback is becoming a deeper correction rather than a simple reset.

The next resistance is around $2,500–$2,520. This zone already produced rejection on September 15, when ETH traded above $2,500 before reversing sharply. If buyers reclaim it and hold it on a retest, the market would have a much stronger argument for testing $2,600–$2,660 again. That September 11 high near $2,666 is the major recent liquidity zone because it represents the strongest upside extension of the current move.

On the downside, $2,360–$2,390 is the first important demand area. The lower edge matters because September 15 produced a violent sweep into that region. If ETH repeatedly tests it without recovering, sellers could eventually consume the bids. Below $2,360, I would watch roughly $2,300 and then the $2,200–$2,250 area as potential downside zones rather than assuming that every dip will immediately reverse.

Momentum has weakened, but volume is still meaningful. CoinGecko currently shows around $19B in 24-hour ETH trading volume, while the September 15 selloff was accompanied by much heavier activity than the preceding sessions. That combination tells me the rejection was not just a quiet drift lower; there was genuine two-way positioning around the $2,500 area.

I am deliberately not putting an open-interest, funding-rate or liquidation figure into this setup because I could not verify a sufficiently current primary-quality reading for those metrics today. I would rather leave a number out than manufacture precision. Traders using derivatives should check the live figures immediately before opening a leveraged position.

The macro backdrop is also important. Bitcoin is around $75.5K and down roughly 1.7% over 24 hours and 4.3% over seven days, so ETH is not selling off in isolation. The wider market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, while U.S. Treasury yields have been near multi-year highs. Reuters reported that markets were pricing a strong probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike, while crypto markets remained under pressure after the U.S. Senate failed to advance major crypto legislation.

There is still a bullish argument here. Reuters recently noted that ETH had rallied about 37% over ten days before consolidating around the $2,500 area, with $2,350–$2,360 identified as an important level for the structure. If that support continues to hold and ETH reclaims $2,500 with expanding spot volume, the market could start targeting $2,600 and the recent $2,660 high again.

My bullish setup would therefore be confirmation-based, not a blind entry. I would want ETH to reclaim $2,500–$2,520, hold that zone on a retest and show improving volume. A possible trading area would then be around $2,500–$2,520, with invalidation below the reclaimed structure, roughly $2,450 depending on the exact entry. TP1 would be around $2,600, TP2 near $2,660, and TP3 around $2,750. The exact stop should be adjusted to the actual candle structure rather than forcing a fixed number.

The bearish setup is cleaner if $2,360 breaks decisively. I would want a confirmed close below that zone followed by a failed reclaim before considering a short rather than chasing the first red candle. In that case, $2,300 becomes the first downside objective, followed by approximately $2,200–$2,250. The bearish thesis would weaken if ETH quickly recovers $2,400 and then reclaims $2,500.

For risk management, I would keep the risk around 1–2% of trading capital on either setup. Position size should come from the distance between entry and stop: a wider stop means a smaller position, while a tighter valid stop allows a larger position. For example, risking $100 with a $50 ETH stop distance means a position size of 2 ETH. The risk amount stays fixed; the position size changes with volatility.

For me, the better trade right now is confirmation rather than prediction. ETH is sitting between a major support area around $2,360–$2,390 and resistance around $2,500–$2,520. Trading in the middle of that range gives less clean risk/reward.

My current verdict is neutral with a slight defensive bias. I would become structurally more constructive only after ETH reclaims and holds $2,500–$2,520. A confirmed breakdown below $2,360 would shift the structure bearish and put $2,300 and then $2,200–$2,250 into focus. Until one of those levels gives way, ETH is still a range rather than a confirmed new trend.

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