Will the market get a surprise tonight? A detailed look at the CLARITY Act’s Senate hurdle!

In less than 12 hours, the highly anticipated CLARITY Act will face a vote in the U.S. Senate. Although Kalshi currently shows its probability of passing this year has fallen to 25%, the Little God of Wealth believes there may be a surprise tonight:

I. First, let’s look at the main contents of tonight’s bill:

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act has the core goal of dividing crypto jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC: mature decentralized tokens such as BTC and ETH would be classified as digital commodities and regulated by the CFTC; tokens with securities characteristics would be regulated by the SEC; a separate regulatory framework would be established for stablecoins; non-custodial blockchain developers, miners, and validators would receive limited compliance protections; and federal-level rules for regulating the spot crypto market would be established, bringing an end to years of confusion under “regulation by enforcement.” In addition, the “ethics provisions” previously proposed by the Senate have been approved by President Trump, clearing a major obstacle to the bill’s progress.

II. Can this vote proceed smoothly?

Vote fundamentals

Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, but there are potential internal opponents, leaving a reliable core of approximately 51 votes. To reach 60 votes, at least nine Democratic senators must provide bipartisan support, which is the biggest challenge. Although the bill incorporates 126 changes proposed by Democrats, strengthening consumer protection, official ethics, anti-money-laundering, and stablecoin banking protections, banking lobby groups, some senior Democratic lawmakers, and the New York attorney general remain publicly opposed. They are concerned about the stablecoin provisions, DeFi compliance loopholes, and the scope of developer protections, and many Democrats remain hesitant.

Scenario analysis

1. Base case (the market’s mainstream pricing): The procedural vote fails to secure 60 votes, and the bill fails to clear the hurdle (more likely). Once this happens, the bill will essentially be shelved for the remainder of the current Congress, with no further opportunity to restart it this year. Kalshi’s 25% pricing for enactment this year has effectively already priced in the substantial risk of a failed procedural vote.

2. Bullish scenario: The bill narrowly clears the 60-vote threshold. This would only mean that the Senate can begin debate and accept amendments. It would not mean the bill has passed. It would still need to go through negotiations over amendments, a final Senate vote, reconciliation of the House and Senate versions, and the president’s signature. The number of remaining congressional working days is extremely limited. Even if the procedural vote passes, completing the entire legislative process this year would remain very difficult, which is the core reason Kalshi’s probability of enactment this year is only 25%.

3. Low-probability compromise: Postpone the vote, continue negotiations, and delay the vote.

III. How would different voting outcomes affect the crypto market?

Scenario A: The procedural vote fails to reach 60 votes → failure (base expectation)

1. Short-term market action: This would be a case of “the bad news becoming reality.” The market has already been continually lowering expectations for passage this year ahead of the vote, so the negative news has already been priced in. The market could initially plunge sharply, then rebound quickly afterward (“sell the expectation, buy the fact”).

Assets: BTC, ETH, and XRP could experience sharp short-term volatility; crypto-related stocks COIN and CRCL would come under pressure first.

Logic: The U.S. federal crypto market structure bill would fail in the short term, and regulation would return to the old model centered on SEC enforcement litigation. Expectations for incremental inflows into spot ETFs would cool, and the market would continue to be driven by macro interest rates and dollar liquidity.

2. Medium to long term: The window for crypto regulatory legislation in the United States would close, leaving the industry to wait for the next Congress. Uncertainty around the industry’s compliance path would return to elevated levels, while offshore exchanges and compliant overseas markets would benefit relatively.

Scenario B: The procedural vote succeeds and secures 60 votes → bullish shock

1. Short-term market action: A strong bullish impulse would send BTC, ETH, and crypto stocks higher quickly as capital trades on expectations that “the U.S. crypto regulatory framework may be enacted.” However, the rise would likely be impulsive, making a sustained one-way bull market unlikely. The market would immediately price in the uncertainty surrounding subsequent amendment negotiations and House-Senate reconciliation, rather than directly pricing in enactment of the bill this year.

2. Medium- to long-term narrative:

Positive for the spot crypto market, compliant exchanges, and the stablecoin sector; BTC and ETH would gain congressional recognition as digital commodities, supporting continued ETF inflows;

Positive for projects such as Ripple that have been engaged in long-running legal battles with the SEC, as jurisdictional disputes would ease substantially;

However, banking groups will continue lobbying to modify the stablecoin-related provisions, and the bill’s text could still be weakened.

Scenario C: The vote is postponed and negotiations continue

The market impact would be relatively neutral, with short-term volatility and expectations left in limbo while awaiting a new voting date.

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