#AugustCoreCPIBeatsExpectations #每周来晒 #8月CPI数据出炉
August CPI has arrived, but the real trade starts after the number.

Headline inflation printed at 3.4% YoY with a 0.4% monthly increase, while Core CPI came in at 2.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM. The report was not a major shock, but the monthly core reading is enough to remind markets that inflation is still not completely under control.

That puts the focus back where it belongs: Fed expectations, Treasury yields, oil and overall risk appetite.
$BTC

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For crypto, Bitcoin remains my first chart to watch. BTC is trading around $77K, with $76K–$77K acting as the key defense zone and $78K–$80K as the first major recovery area. A clean reclaim above $80K would strengthen the bullish structure, while a decisive loss of $76K could open the door to another risk-off move.

I’m not interested in buying every bounce. If BTC can defend $76K–$77K while Nasdaq remains stable and Treasury yields stop pushing higher, the setup becomes much more attractive for a confirmed long. If support breaks while yields rise and equities weaken, protecting capital becomes more important than predicting a bottom.
$ETH

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ETH is sitting around $3.43K, but I want confirmation rather than a blind entry. BTC stabilization first, then an ETH breakout supported by real volume would give me much more confidence.
$US

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U.S. equities remain a major liquidity signal. S&P 500 is around 7,657 and Nasdaq around 26,333, while the 10Y Treasury yield is hovering near the 4.91%–4.97% area. Technology stocks such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta remain strong narratives, but valuations become increasingly sensitive if yields approach 5%.

Gold around $4.32K and oil near elevated levels are also important. WTI around $100–$104 and Brent above $107 could keep inflation expectations elevated and make the Fed's path toward easier policy more complicated.

My roadmap is straightforward:

BTC holds $76K–$77K + Nasdaq stable + yields calm → bullish opportunity.

BTC reclaims $78K–$80K → stronger confirmation.

BTC loses $76K + Nasdaq weakens + 10Y moves toward 5% + oil stays elevated → risk reduction.

The CPI number itself is not the trade. The reaction to CPI is the trade.

For now, I prefer confirmation over prediction, controlled leverage over aggressive positioning, and BTC before ETH. Missing the first move is far better than getting trapped trying to catch the bottom.

No FOMO. Let price prove the direction.

@Gate_Square