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#NVDA is finally showing some buyers again, but I would not call this a reversal yet. After falling from the $233–$235 area toward $218, the stock is now trying to stabilize around $220. The interesting part is not the small green move itself — it is whether buyers can turn this rebound into a recovery of the levels that were lost this week.

The short-term structure weakened after NVDA failed to hold the $233–$235 region. September 8 produced a high around $233.71, followed by selling on September 9 and 10. The latest session has so far held above $219, which gives buyers a small base to work from, but the stock still has several resistance levels overhead.

Today's broader market environment is helping. U.S. equities rebounded after the latest inflation data came in broadly in line with expectations, while oil prices pulled back and Treasury yields eased from their recent highs. The Nasdaq was up around 1.3% in today's rebound, giving high-growth technology names some breathing room.

But NVDA has its own story to deal with. Barron's reported that Nvidia has fallen about 5% since Tuesday while some chip competitors have moved higher. The report also highlighted a reported DOJ investigation into whether Nvidia attempted to bypass antitrust rules around a 2025 licensing deal involving AI-chip company Groq. Nvidia disputes the concern and says the arrangement supports innovation and consumer benefit. That is not automatically a bearish fundamental signal, but it is another reason I would not chase a bounce without confirmation.

On the positive side, the underlying AI infrastructure story has not disappeared. Nvidia announced plans to expand AI data-center capacity in Australia by up to 2 GW through partnerships with local cloud and data-center companies. Jensen Huang has also been highlighting cybersecurity as another major commercial application for AI. So the long-term demand narrative remains strong even while the stock deals with short-term positioning pressure.

Now the chart becomes more interesting around $219–$220. That is the immediate area buyers need to defend. Today's low is $219.03, so losing that level would tell me the current bounce is failing before it has even reached meaningful resistance.

The first recovery test is $221.30–$222.50. Today's high sits around $221.34, while the options market is also heavily active around the $220–$222.50 strikes. A clean move above this area would improve the short-term structure, but I would still want to see price hold the breakout rather than immediately fall back underneath it.

The bigger resistance zone is $225–$228. NVDA traded around $225 before the latest weakness, and $227.92 was previously identified as an important breakout level. Reclaiming this zone would be much more meaningful than simply moving back above $221.

Above that, $230–$235 is the real decision zone. The recent high of $234.76 sits there, so a break above that level would effectively repair most of the current short-term damage. Until that happens, I still see the stock as being in a correction/recovery phase rather than a confirmed continuation.

On the downside, $219 is the first warning level. A confirmed break below today's low would put $217–$218 back into focus. That zone matters because NVDA has repeatedly traded around it recently, including the September 1 close at $217.44 and the September 2 low near $218.48.

If $217 gives way, the next important area is around $209–$211. Below that, $200 becomes the major psychological level. I would not automatically expect $200 simply because $217 breaks, but the risk of a deeper correction would increase substantially.

The derivatives market is giving another useful warning. Today's options chain shows particularly heavy activity around $220, $222.50, $225 and $227.50, with substantial open interest at several of those strikes. That suggests these levels can attract additional short-term price sensitivity, although options positioning alone does not tell us the direction of the next move.

For the bullish scenario, I want NVDA to first hold $219–$220 and then reclaim $222.50. The stronger confirmation would be a move through $225 with a successful retest. A confirmation entry around $225–$226 would make more sense to me than buying the middle of today's range. Invalidation would be a decisive move back below roughly $219. TP1 would be $230, TP2 $234.76, and TP3 around $240 if the previous high breaks with real momentum.

For the bearish scenario, the clean trigger is a confirmed break below $219, followed by a failed reclaim of that level. I would not short simply because price briefly dips below it. If sellers establish control below $219, the first downside area is $217–$218, followed by $209–$211. A deeper extension could bring $200 into play. The bearish thesis would weaken considerably if NVDA reclaims $225 and starts holding above it.

For me, the best trade is currently confirmation-based. The middle around $220–$222 does not offer enough information. I would rather wait for either a support reaction that clearly holds $219 or a breakout through $225 followed by a retest. That gives the trade a much cleaner invalidation point.

For example, a bullish entry around $225 with a $219 invalidation risks about $6 per share. A move toward $234.76 gives roughly $9.76 of upside, or about 1.6R. A move to $240 would improve that to roughly 2.5R. I would only take the setup if the actual chart confirms the breakout; these are scenario calculations, not guaranteed targets.

Risk management is separate from the thesis. I would keep the account risk around 1–2% on the trade and adjust position size according to the stop distance. If the invalidation is wider, the position should be smaller. The objective is to keep the amount at risk controlled even when NVDA becomes volatile.

My final verdict is neutral with a cautious bullish recovery attempt.

The level that changes my short-term view is $225. A sustained reclaim would make me more constructive and put $230–$234.76 back into focus. A confirmed break below $219 would flip the setup bearish and bring $217–$218, then $209–$211, into focus.

For now, I would not chase the green candle. I want NVDA to prove that $219–$220 is actually becoming support and that buyers can take back $225. That confirmation would tell me far more than today's 1% bounce.

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$SNDK