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#BitcoinETFNetInflow4038BTC
Bitcoin ETF Net Inflow 4038 BTC: Fresh Bid After $81k Hold
Spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflow of 4038 BTC in last 24h, equal to $328 million at $81.3k BTC. This marks third straight day of net buy, with total 3-day inflow near 9,200 BTC.
BlackRock IBIT led with +2,410 BTC, Fidelity FBTC added +1,120 BTC, Bitwise BITB added +680 BTC, while Grayscale GBTC saw -210 BTC out. Net of all issuers still +4038 BTC.
This flow matters because ETF flow has been key price driver since Jan 2024 launch.
Why 4038 BTC Inflow Now
Three drivers.
One, price held $79k to $80k floor for 6 days after $84k top. Buyers who sold at top re-enter on dip. On-chain data shows short-term holder cost near $68k, so $80k still keeps 88% of holders in profit, which limits panic sell.
Two, macro bid. US M2 growth hit 4.5% year over year, fastest in four years, up from -4.6% in 2023. M2 at $21.4 trillion adds cash to system. With US federal debt above $40 trillion, 10-year yield near 4.70%, and gold above $2,650, hard asset bid stays.
Three, basis and carry. CME BTC basis rose to 11.2% annual, funding in perps near 8% to 12%, so ETF buy plus futures sell carry pays 9% to 11%. Hedge fund desk uses ETF as long leg of carry, which lifts inflow even when spot flat.
Flow vs Supply
4038 BTC inflow equals about 9x daily mined supply. Daily mined supply after April 2024 halving is ∼450 BTC per day. ETF net buy of 4038 BTC absorbs 9 days of new supply in one day.
Since launch, ETF net hold is above 1.05 million BTC, or 5.0% of total 21 million max supply. At $81k, that hold is worth $85.3 billion.
On top of that, stable coin reserve on major venues is $42 billion, and firm treasury hold is 600k BTC, so liquid float is thin.
What 4038 BTC Means For Price
Past pattern: when daily net inflow tops 3000 BTC for 3 days in row, BTC rose 12% on average in next 21 days. Last time this happened in early May, BTC rose from $62k to $71k in 18 days.
If inflow holds above 2000 BTC per day and funding stays above 8%, path to $86k to $90k stays open, with $79k as near-term floor. If inflow flips to -2000 BTC per day, $75k support could be tested.
Watch tonight US session. US ETF flow prints at 01:00 UTC. If IBIT adds over 1500 BTC again, 3-day streak could extend to 4 days, which last occurred in Feb when BTC pushed to new high.
For now, 4038 BTC net inflow shows real buy, not just short cover, with BTC above $81k and ETH above $2,500.