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#BTC BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas pointed out that the true driver of this rally is the expansion of Treasury buybacks, but its long-term rationale has not changed, and Bitcoin’s characteristic high volatility remains just as pronounced.
On Kalshi, a globally renowned paid prediction platform, both retail speculators betting real money and professional institutional traders are broadly wagering that Bitcoin will close 2026 near its current price level—meaning that for the remainder of the year, it may either trade sideways or enter a high-level turnover phase during a bull market. The average result of the platform’s related contracts shows that the market expects Bitcoin to be priced at around $75k at year-end.
Recently, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio once again warned of US fiscal risks. He noted that US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement of expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, combined with the continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields and Japan’s reduction of its US Treasury exposure, may indicate that US fiscal policy is approaching a critical turning point. If the debt problem is not addressed in a timely manner, the US may face a more severe debt crisis in the coming years.
Dalio stated clearly on social media on the 21st that the US government’s fiscal position has reached a “turning point,” warning that if immediate action is not taken, debt will continue to expand until it can no longer be resolved without causing a major economic shock.
In response to potential fiscal and monetary risks, Dalio advised investors to adjust their asset allocation accordingly: reduce the proportion allocated to debt assets such as bonds, while allocating 10% to 15% of the portfolio to gold and holding a small amount of Bitcoin to enhance diversification against fiscal and monetary volatility.$BTC
On Kalshi, a globally renowned paid prediction platform, both retail speculators betting real money and professional institutional traders are broadly wagering that Bitcoin will close 2026 near its current price level—meaning that for the remainder of the year, it may either trade sideways or enter a high-level turnover phase during a bull market. The average result of the platform’s related contracts shows that the market expects Bitcoin to be priced at around $75k at year-end.
Recently, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio once again warned of US fiscal risks. He noted that US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement of expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, combined with the continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields and Japan’s reduction of its US Treasury exposure, may indicate that US fiscal policy is approaching a critical turning point. If the debt problem is not addressed in a timely manner, the US may face a more severe debt crisis in the coming years.
Dalio stated clearly on social media on the 21st that the US government’s fiscal position has reached a “turning point,” warning that if immediate action is not taken, debt will continue to expand until it can no longer be resolved without causing a major economic shock.
In response to potential fiscal and monetary risks, Dalio advised investors to adjust their asset allocation accordingly: reduce the proportion allocated to debt assets such as bonds, while allocating 10% to 15% of the portfolio to gold and holding a small amount of Bitcoin to enhance diversification against fiscal and monetary volatility.$BTC