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#我的七夕交易分享 trillion dollars of liquidity is on the way, and the crypto market is set for a systemic repricing
Many people are only focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle while overlooking that FIMA balance-sheet expansion is a more direct release of liquidity.
Rate cuts change the cost of capital, whereas balance-sheet expansion directly injects additional dollars into the market. For crypto assets, changes in marginal liquidity will always matter more than the absolute level of interest rates.
Trillion-scale incremental liquidity is enough to trigger a new market rally
Let’s do the math: The U.S. Treasuries held by the Japanese government alone are worth $1.143 trillion, and adding the $230 billion held by GPIF brings the total to $1.373 trillion. If all these assets could be converted into liquidity through FIMA, it would be equivalent to injecting trillion-scale additional dollars into the market.
For comparison, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by approximately $4 trillion in total, directly triggering the global asset bull market of 2020-2021. Although the scale of this liquidity increase is different this time, the direction is exactly the same—the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is expanding again, dollars are flooding the market, and all dollar-denominated risk assets will undergo a valuation repricing.
The market has already provided a signal: Gold prices have rebounded sharply from their recent lows, precisely reflecting smart money pricing in expectations of looser dollar liquidity.
The choice of capital is also clear: Rather than investing in AI infrastructure, where returns on capital are becoming increasingly uncertain, the market prefers to flow into hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin that carry no counterparty credit risk.
BTC and ETH will benefit first, with the highest certainty of valuation recovery.
Bitcoin is the core asset in liquidity-driven rallies. As long as the Federal Reserve expands its balance sheet, Bitcoin will not be absent. At the current stage, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are undervalued.
Ethereum in particular is one of the few major coins that failed to break its previous all-time high during the 2025 market rally, while also carrying the narrative of serving as the security layer for RWA assets. Its catch-up potential is therefore very clear. During a cycle of shifting macro liquidity, large-cap blue chips are always the first to benefit and offer the highest certainty.
If the FIMA rule changes are implemented, they will become a key catalyst for the crypto market to shift from a range-bound market into a trending bull market. Before then, the market may gradually rise amid hesitation, but once the signal becomes clear, the rally will quickly enter its main upward phase.
$BTC
Many people only watch the Fed’s rate-cut cycle, but overlook that FIMA balance-sheet expansion is a more direct source of liquidity release.
Rate cuts change the cost of capital, while balance-sheet expansion injects incremental dollars into the market directly. For crypto assets, changes in marginal liquidity always matter more than the absolute level of interest rates.
A trillion-scale increment is enough to trigger a new round of upside
Let’s do the math: U.S. Treasuries held only by the Japanese government are $1.143 trillion, plus the $230 billion held by GPIF, for a total of $1.373 trillion. If this portion of assets can all be converted into liquidity via FIMA, it would effectively inject a trillion-level dollar increment into the market.
For comparison, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed’s cumulative balance-sheet expansion was about $4 trillion, directly driving the global bull market for assets in 2020–2021. This time the liquidity increment is different in magnitude, but the direction is completely the same—when the Fed’s balance sheet expands again, dollars flood the system, and all risk assets priced in dollars will undergo valuation repricing.
The market has already sent signals in advance: gold prices have rebounded sharply from a phase low, which is exactly what smart money is pricing in—expectations of looser dollar liquidity.
And the choice of capital is clear: compared with putting money into AI infrastructure, where capital returns are becoming increasingly uncertain, the market is more willing to flow into hard assets without counterparty credit risk, such as gold and Bitcoin.
BTC and ETH benefit first, with the highest certainty for valuation repairs.
Bitcoin is the core asset for a liquidity trade: as long as the Fed expands its balance sheet, Bitcoin won’t be absent. At the current stage, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are undervalued.
Especially Ethereum, as one of the few major coins that failed to break its all-time high in the 2025 rally, while also carrying the RWA asset security-layer narrative—its catch-up upside is very clear. In cycles where macro liquidity turns, blue-chip large caps are always the first to benefit and have the highest certainty.
If FIMA rules are modified and implemented, it will become a key catalyst for the crypto market to shift from a ranging market into a trend bull market. Before that, the market may slowly lift in hesitation; but once the signal becomes clear, the price action will quickly enter the main uptrend. $BTC