#我的七夕交易分享 All bullish catalysts have been priced in—why isn’t the market rising?

#我的七夕交易分享 All bullish catalysts have been priced in—why isn’t the market rising?

The biggest controversy in the market today—and the core issue confusing investors—is that macro tailwinds are fully in place, yet the crypto market has become completely desensitized.

U.S. CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, continuing its decline from 3.5% in June. The figure was fully in line with market expectations, confirming that inflation is cooling. Bolstered by this positive data, the Nasdaq jumped 0.54%, while AI chip and cloud-computing stocks surged across the board, lifting U.S. risk assets broadly. The crypto market, however, remained “indifferent” throughout. BTC briefly rose 0.3% after the data was released before quickly retreating, while ETH also failed to sustain its spike, becoming completely decoupled from U.S. equities and entering a weak trend.

There is only one core truth: all bullish catalysts had already been priced in by the market.

Expectations for this round of cooling inflation had already been fully absorbed by earlier market action, so their realization brought no new buying. At the same time, the market is in a typical vacuum period in which negative factors have been exhausted but positive catalysts have yet to arrive. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September rose from 30% to 60%, significantly easing concerns about monetary tightening. However, the market has not yet formed clear expectations for rate cuts, leaving insufficient incremental momentum to support a rebound.

More importantly, gold broke above $4,500 to hit a two-month high. Safe-haven and wealth-preservation funds have been diverted significantly, further limiting the upside of crypto risk assets and depriving the broader market of upward momentum.

BTC faces three major pressures

Beneath the seemingly uneventful range-bound trading, three hidden pressures continue to cap Bitcoin’s rebound and are the core reasons the market is struggling to break out in the short term:

1. Rising geopolitical tensions continue to cool risk appetite

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate, with Iranian officials indicating that they may blockade the strait until 2029 in retaliation for a U.S. naval blockade. The crisis involving a key global energy route directly pushed WTI crude oil to $83.75 per barrel, causing risk appetite in global markets to contract rapidly. Compared with gold’s stronger safe-haven characteristics, crypto assets’ risk profile has become more pronounced, prompting investors to avoid them first.

2. Delayed regulatory implementation keeps uncertainty alive

The vote on the key U.S. crypto legislation, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, has been postponed until September, leaving a short-term regulatory vacuum and the market without clear policy guidance. On top of that, Hawaii will halt cash-based crypto-purchasing terminal services in October, contributing to a “structurally tightening” global regulatory environment that continues to undermine institutional confidence in entering the market.

3. Institutional selling has materialized, with pressure persisting

Leading institutional investor Strategy continues to reduce its holdings and realize gains. After selling 1,690 BTC last week, it once again raised $653 million through a stock issuance, bringing its total BTC holdings down to 840,447. Notably, the institution’s average acquisition price is as high as $75,385, leaving it deeply underwater overall at current prices. This creates the potential for continued selling pressure from further position reductions and stop-losses, placing long-term pressure on the market.

Market summary and outlook

The core keywords for the crypto market on August 13 are decoupling, declining volume, shakeout, and range-bound trading. Macro tailwinds materialized but failed to lift the market, while geopolitical risks, regulatory uncertainty, and institutional selling pressure weighed on BTC. ETH remained weak and range-bound under the influence of ETF outflows, a technical breakdown, and cautious capital flows. However, its on-chain fundamentals continue to improve, providing a solid medium- to long-term foundation.

In the short term, market liquidity has yet to return, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue. Do not chase long positions before a key resistance level is broken, and do not blindly turn bearish before core support is breached. The more painful the range-bound shakeout, the more significant the subsequent trend change may be. Focus on a breakout in trading volume and simply follow the trend. $BTC