Cyclical patterns: the 'bull and bear rhythm' of the encryption market

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*Periodic regularity: The 'bull-bear rhythm' of the encryption market
- Historical cycle: The encryption market has a major cycle every 4 years (synchronized with Bitcoin halving), and the fourth halving has occurred in May 2024. Theoretically, the market may enter a bull market peak in 2025.
- Key Timing: The price reached a new high approximately 12-18 months after the past halving, so **Q4 2025 to Q1 2026** may be a critical period.
- Risks: Federal Reserve interest rate policy, geopolitical conflicts, regulatory pressures (such as the SEC's stance on Ethereum ETF).
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Second, **Potential Track Analysis**
1. Bitcoin (BTC): **Strengthening the "safe-haven asset" status**
- Core Logic: Institutions continue to increase holdings (such as BlackRock, MicroStrategy), ETF fund inflows, and tightening of supply after halving.
- Risk: High volatility, need to pay attention to global liquidity changes.
2. Ethereum (ETH): **Ecological upgrade and ETF expectations**
- Catalyst: 'Cancun Upgrade' to be completed in Q1 2024 (reducing Gas fees), potential replication of Bitcoin ETF market if spot ETF is approved.
- Challenge: Competition chains (Solana, Avalanche) compete for market share, need to observe the development of Layer2 ecosystem.
3. AI+Blockchain: **Technological Fusion Explosion**
- Represented projects: FET (Fetch), RNDR (decentralized computing power), AGIX (SingularityNET).
- Logic: AI needs decentralized data and computing power, and killer applications may appear in 2024-2025.
4. DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure): **Combination of physical economy**
- Represented projects: FIL (storage), HNT (IoT), AKT (cloud computing).
- Logic: Using tokens to incentivize the sharing of physical resources, long-term value depends on the speed of implementation.
5. Meme Coins: **high risk, high return**
- Represents currencies: DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, WIF.
- Logic: Community-driven, celebrity effect (such as Musk), but the position needs to be strictly controlled.
6. The new public chain and modular blockchain: **technological iteration dividend**
- Represented projects: TIA (Celestia), SEI, SUI.
- Logic: Solve the expansion problem, modular design reduces the development threshold.
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Three, **Macroeconomic Impact**
1. Dollar liquidity: If the Fed cuts interest rates, risk assets (including encryption currencies) will benefit.
2. Regulatory compliance: Clear policies in the United States, Europe, and other places may attract traditional funds to enter the market.
3. Geopolitical risk: Regional conflicts may drive Bitcoin's 'digital gold' properties.
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