BTC market trend analysis (January 8, 2025)

The U.S. job vacancy data released last night greatly exceeded expectations, so the market reduced its expectations for a Fed rate cut.
The current expectation is very pessimistic: if interest rates are not lowered before July next year, it will be this that crashes the cryptocurrency market.

When we are uncertain about the direction, we can only study the on-chain data and study how big capital operates.

From the on-chain data perspective, after yesterday's sharp decline:
(1) A large amount of BTC flowing out of the exchange indicates that the big players are still bottom fishing, with a trading volume of over 1.2 billion US dollars, which is much larger than the volume when it dropped to $91,000 two weeks ago.
(2)Stablecoins have not flowed out much, maintaining strong

With such a large trading volume and on-chain data, it feels like the price should have dropped enough. Next, let's look at the non-farm payroll and employment rate on Friday. If it's positive (40% chance), then it will quickly rebound to 100,000.
If there is negative news (60%), it may drop to $95000
Then approached Trump. Before and after taking office, it began to rebound and return to high levels.