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Market Trend Analysis (2024.12.31)
Last night, after the opening of the US stock market, there was a sharp drop, which triggered a drop in BTC. BTC has been falling during this period. Does that mean there is no more bull market? Let's analyze it from several aspects.
The callback has been so long for two reasons:
(1) Normal pullback after a large increase
(2) The fluctuation after the release of the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
From the perspective of the overall trend:
(1) The Fed's rate-cutting cycle is still ongoing, with three possible rate cuts in 2025, possibly in March, June, and September.
(2) Trump is about to take office, and the expectation of BTC being included in the national reserve is still there (regardless of whether it can be implemented)
(3) The consensus on holding BTC continues to increase in the long term:
After Trump took office, the US tariff policy intensified the anti-globalization trend, prompting other central banks to buy BTC, expanding debt pressure, affecting the credit of the US dollar, and enhancing the status of BTC.
After a 3-week adjustment, I expect a big rebound after New Year's Day, or on January 3rd, just these few days, by then BTC will return to the $100,000 mark.
There is money to buy BTC, Uni, BNB at a low price
BNB has performed strongly in the past week, and is expected to break $900 in Q1 next year.