"Hot" list

Master the signal of the peak of this bull run and withdraw in time to avoid being trapped!
1. Price
Generally speaking, during a bull run, the overall market doubles, while the big cake increases by 2-3 times.
When the pancake Ether has been consolidating for a long time and altcoins have all risen about the same, you have to be especially careful. At this point, the market has already seriously exceeded and overdrawn future value, so you need to learn to stop at the right time.
2. On-chain volume
During a bull run, the on-chain volume usually expands significantly, with frequent capital flows. However, it is worth noting that when the price reaches new highs and the on-chain volume starts to decline, it is an important signal of a market top.
For example, in the late stage of the 2021 Bull Market, although the on-chain volume temporarily surged, it gradually shrank afterwards, indicating that the market's willingness to enter the funds started to weaken.
3. Leverage and lending data
In the Decentralized Finance market, leverage and lending data are important indicators for judging market sentiment:
Surge in borrowing demand: Investors borrow stablecoins to buy large amounts of mainstream assets, indicating high market sentiment.
High risk of liquidation: If the liquidation price of most borrowing funds approaches the market price, it indicates that investors are overly optimistic and leverage risk increases.
Usually, excessive leverage can lead to a chain of liquidation triggered by even minor market fluctuations, becoming the starting point for the collapse of a bull run.
4. New Wallets Added
In the later stage of the bull run, the number of new wallets will increase significantly, and many newbies will enter the market, especially when opening wallet addresses, they need to be extra careful.
For example, the high point of the Bull Market in 2021, the active users of MetaMask once exceeded 10 million, and then the market quickly turned bearish.
5. Regulatory Policies
The cryptocurrency market is policy-sensitive, and regulatory dynamics often determine market trends.
In 2017, China banned ICOs, and in 2021, it cleared out mining farms. These policies directly triggered the end of the Bull Market. Pay attention to global policy trends, such as the SEC's actions in the United States and China's anti-money laundering policies.
6. Institutional Fund Trends
Institutional fund inflows and outflows are important indicators of the Bull Market, such as Grayscale's BTC holdings and the net inflows and outflows of ETF funds. If institutional funds start reducing mainstream assets or shifting to other areas, it indicates that the market has entered the late stage of the Bull Market.
At the end of the market, the inflow of funds will slow down, or even turn from inflow to outflow, which means net selling, indicating that the market is about to end. This is an important reference indicator.
7. Market Cap and Valuation
In the bull run, the market capitalization and valuation of many currencies will deviate from the fundamentals.
For example, in 2021, DOGE's Market Cap once ranked among the top five, and the valuation of certain Non-fungible Token projects reached hundreds of millions of dollars. If similar bubble phenomena occur again, it indicates that the market has become overheated and may experience a pullback at any time.
8. Market Total Market Value Compared to the Global Economy
The crypto circle can also use the "Buffett Indicator" to measure bubbles. When the total market value of encryption exceeds a certain threshold (such as 15% of global GDP), it means that the market valuation is too high.
For example, in 2021, the total market capitalization once exceeded $30 trillion, while the global GDP is about $85 trillion, accounting for approximately 3.5%. This rapid expansion is a risk signal.
9. Media public opinion
When the mainstream media starts to hype 'Bull Market has no peak' and 'Bitcoin to $1 million,' caution is advised. Media hype is usually a sign of overheated market sentiment and an important signal of a top.
10. Large-scale pullback or oscillation
In a bull market, the price of the cryptocurrency continues to rise, but if there is a single day big dump or a long period of sideways volatility, it may be a precursor to capital flight.
For example, in the late stages of the Bull Market in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced several major corrections, followed by the Bear Market.
11. The people around me are discussing
When your fren, colleagues, or even family members who have never dealt with encryption currencies are discussing buying Bitcoin or altcoins, you have to be careful. The entry of retail investors is often a sign of the end of a bull market.
In 2017 and 2021, this phenomenon was very obvious, and the final buyers were these 'latecomer' Newbie investors.