#十月上涨行情能如期而至吗？ Entering late September to October, the entire market is shrouded in a bearish mood, and investors are starting to feel desperate as if the Bear Market is imminent. On October 31, the Central Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates by 0.25 again, which may continue to shake BTC downward. In addition, the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate meeting will be held on November 6-7. Since September is the fiscal year and the third quarter Settlement in the United States, if various economic indicators in the U.S. show improvement in September and October, the probability of a rate hike at this meeting will increase. Historical data shows that the stock market often experiences technical pullbacks and adjustments in September and October, and Black Swan Events frequently occur. Therefore, October will be a rather difficult period for investors.

However, the market situation in November and December may improve. With the dust settling after the US election, the overall economy is expected to develop positively, and the bull market in US stocks is projected to continue for 1-2 years. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expect a US economic recession in 2025, with the probability dropping from the previous 30% to 20%, and even possibly further declining to 15%. In this case, the entire cryptocurrency market data is expected to start recovering with a pump. Based on the cycle calculation, about 4-7 weeks later, the technical aspect will gradually digest short positions and turn to long positions. #币圈观察员