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Bull Market Top Indicator in Bull Market
Bull markets and bear markets always follow certain patterns. In a bull market, there is usually a situation where "BTC" rises first, followed by a surge in both "BTC" and "Altcoins", and finally the "Altcoins" surge while "BTC" stops pumping. Conversely, in a bear market, "BTC" and "Altcoins" will decline together, with "Altcoins" bottoming out a few months ahead of "BTC", indicating that the entire industry has reached a trough, which is an important signal for judging the end of the bear market.
In the late stage of a bull market, the entire cryptocurrency market often experiences a wave of "buying frenzy". This is manifested by a single-day big pump of around 20% for "Bitcoin" and a rise of 30% - 50% for "AltCoins". This type of upward trend often attracts the last wave of buyers, resulting in a depletion of buying pressure in the market.
When the bull run of Bitcoin is coming to an end and entering a consolidation phase, the pump space for "alts" is very limited, usually only about 1x. Therefore, when you observe a buying frenzy in the entire industry, "Bitcoin" enters a range-bound state, while "alts" continue to reach new highs, this is often a not very optimistic signal, and investors should reduce position accordingly.
Taking the example of Bitcoin reaching around $59,000 on February 21, 2021. After that, Bitcoin's rise almost stagnated and entered a consolidation period for three months. However, at the same time, "MKR" continued to rise by over 100% after a brief adjustment. This is a typical case of "Big Pancake doesn't follow the rise, altcoin doesn't follow the fall".
The top of a bull market is usually a range and there is a period of volatility for 2-3 months. The reason why the bull market eventually ends is that the entire market's capital can no longer support the continuous pump, which is manifested by the influx of inexperienced investors such as retiree moms.
Therefore, after the whole cryptocurrency market experiences a wave of buying frenzy, investors must closely follow the performance of Bitcoin and AltCoins. Once it is observed that Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase while AltCoins continue to reach new highs, it is likely a signal that the bull market is about to end.