100% certainty of the crypto Bull Market this year, with an 80% probability of a pullback (down 30-50%) in March. Focus on tracking three time points, the release of the US PCE data for January on February 29, the expiration of the Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP) on March 12, and the second interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in 2024 on March 20. PCE exceeds expectations, representing a rebound in inflation, further weighing on the market's Fed rate cut expectations; BTFP expires and does not renew the wave of small and medium-sized bank failures in the United States to restart the liquidity crisis, and the Fed is forced to bail out the market and re-inject liquidity, whether it is renewed