Bitcoin falls below $64k to a 11-day low: how do rate-hike expectations suppress risk assets?

On July 28, 2026, Bitcoin continued the decline from the previous trading day, briefly falling below the $64k psychological level during the session. The low touched $63,063, the lowest in 11 days since July 17. As of Beijing time on July 28, Bitcoin was trading at $63,494.8, with a 24-hour drop of about 3.1%. Ethereum also weakened in tandem, dropping 3.6% to below $1,880. SOL was at $73.7, down 3.42% over 24 hours; XRP fell 4.49% to $1.0587. Major crypto assets came under broad pressure, and market sentiment remained subdued.

This downturn occurred amid the backdrop of multiple overlapping macro factors. The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC rate decision meeting on July 28–29 local time. At the same time, Asian stock markets were hit by a sharp selloff—South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged 10%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 3.95%. Global risk assets weakened in sync, making it difficult for the crypto market to stand apart.

How Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations transmit to Bitcoin prices

The core driver behind this Bitcoin drop is the continued escalation of expectations for Fed rate hikes. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the market probability of a 25-basis-point hike in July has risen from below 10% at the start of July to 31.5%–36.3%. The probability for a hike at the September meeting is even more aggressive, reaching 77.3%. While this probability shift has not yet formed a consensus—none of the 76 economists surveyed expected a hike in July—the large gap between what futures markets are pricing and what economists expect itself constitutes uncertainty.

The logic by which rate-hike expectations suppress risk assets is clear: rate hikes increase borrowing costs and reduce investors’ risk appetite for high-volatility assets such as stocks and crypto. Bitcoin, as a typical non-yielding risk asset, faces valuation compression pressure in a rising-rate environment. Citadel Securities even expects the Fed could unexpectedly hike by 25 basis points in this meeting to strengthen Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s credibility in combating inflation.

Sharp fluctuations in oil prices further amplified these concerns. Brent crude briefly broke above $100 per barrel in the third week of July, and although it later eased due to a temporary pause in the U.S.-Iran conflict, the volatility in energy prices has had a non-negligible impact on inflation expectations. The Fed faces one of the most complex policy tradeoffs in nearly two years: whether to tolerate short-term inflation pressure or tighten policy early to prevent inflation expectations from spiraling out of control.

Technicals: Why the 200-day moving average is key resistance

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently under notable mid-term downward pressure. The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently near $74,126. An IG Australia analyst said Bitcoin needs to break through and close above the 200-day moving average (currently around $72,000) consistently to eliminate mid-term downside risk and reignite market enthusiasm.

Short-term technical indicators are also skewed bearish. Bitcoin’s spot price action is far below the 50-day EMA ($64,960). The MACD has fallen below the signal line and formed a negative histogram, while RSI is at 45, indicating that downside pressure is continuing but not yet entering a clearly oversold zone. The prior upward support trendline around $76,870 has been lost and has now turned into a resistance area.

From below, the path of least resistance points to the $60,000 psychological support level. Orbit Markets co-founder said the key area to watch below is $62,000, while around $60,000 strong support is expected to form.

On-chain data: What the ETF continuous outflows signal

Institutional capital flows are an important indicator for judging Bitcoin’s outlook. On July 23 and 24, U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs saw total outflows of more than $465 million, ending the prior trend of inflows for seven straight trading days. The magnitude of these outflows has erased nearly half of the amount from the previous inflow cycle.

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT is the main source of ETF “blood loss,” with two-day outflows approaching $415 million. On July 28 alone, total net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs were $11.6439 million, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows. IBIT recorded single-day net outflows of $8.8202 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC had net outflows of $2.8237 million.

Spot ETFs were previously seen as important institutional buy pressure supporting a Bitcoin rebound, but the sudden weakening in fund flows indicates that institutional investors are reducing short-term risk exposure. IBIT has high liquidity and is often used by large funds to quickly adjust positions, so its outflow signals are more likely to amplify changes in market sentiment. As of July 28, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $78.71B, with a net asset ratio of 6.04%. The ETFs have recorded cumulative net inflows of $51.37B historically.

Derivatives market and liquidation data reveal market sentiment

Derivatives market data further confirms the market’s fragility. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, more than 160k people in the crypto market were liquidated, with total liquidation value at $675 million. Of this, long liquidations accounted for $530 million and short liquidations for $140 million. The largest single liquidation order occurred on the Hyperliquid platform, worth $24.6139 million.

The Fear and Greed Index is 29 today, down 1 point from 30 the previous day, extending the nearly eight-day gloomy range (25–33). Market sentiment remains cautious. Bitcoin’s 14-day high is $66,803 (July 21), and the low is $62,474 (July 14); it is currently in the lower-middle part of the range.

Bitcoin futures open interest fell alongside a slight rise in price, and order book data also showed persistent net sell pressure, indicating traders are reducing positions rather than adding to long exposure. Nansen senior research analyst’s base case is that Bitcoin prices will fall to between $52,000 and $58,000, arguing that the recent rebound lacks strong buyer support and represents a shift in positioning rather than the start of a broad upward trend.

Bitcoin path scenarios under the four FOMC cases

The outcome of this week’s FOMC meeting will directly affect Bitcoin’s near-term direction. Based on current market pricing and the macro environment, four main scenarios can be outlined:

Scenario 1: Keep rates unchanged + dovish wording. If the Fed keeps the 3.50%–3.75% rate unchanged and Chair Waller acknowledges that inflation is easing and oil prices are falling, the market may interpret this as a signal of a policy shift. Bitcoin could retest the $65,000 to $67,300 range. An LMAX Group analyst noted that Bitcoin needs to break above $67,300 to break the consolidation pattern that has persisted for weeks since June.

Scenario 2: Keep rates unchanged + hawkish wording. If rates remain unchanged but Waller releases a more hawkish signal—emphasizing that “inflation risks are still skewed to the upside”—the market will reprice. Bond yields may rise further, and a stronger dollar would weigh on Bitcoin. In this scenario, Bitcoin may test the $62,000 support level.

Scenario 3: An unexpected 25-basis-point hike. If the Fed unexpectedly hikes at this meeting, it would be the most direct shock to risk assets. Bitcoin may quickly break below $62,000 and seek support near the $60,000 psychological level. The probability for this scenario is currently about 30%; it is a low-probability case, but not something to ignore.

Scenario 4: Keep rates unchanged + vague guidance. If the Fed keeps rates unchanged but provides unclear policy guidance, uncertainty will persist. Bitcoin could trade in a range between $62,000 and $65,000 while waiting for Thursday’s core PCE inflation data and the second-quarter GDP data to provide further direction.

On Friday this week, there are also about $13.0 billion to $14.0 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring, which could further amplify market volatility.

Summary

Bitcoin falling below the $64,000 level and hitting an 11-day low is the result of multiple macro factors stacking up. Fed rate-hike expectations have risen from below 10% at the start of the month to roughly 30% currently, forming the most direct macro pressure. ETF net outflows for three straight days, liquidations for over 160k people, and the Fear index dropping below 30 all point to the market’s sentiment fragility. Technically, the 200-day moving average (around $72,000) remains a key mid-term resistance, while $60,000 is an important near-term support.

The outcome of this week’s FOMC meeting—whether it keeps rates unchanged or delivers an unexpected hike—will be a key variable determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Before that, the market will likely maintain a cautious wait-and-see stance.

FAQ

Q: What is the current price of Bitcoin?

As of July 28, 2026, Bitcoin is $63,494.8, down about 3.1% over the past 24 hours, with a session low of $63,063.

Q: Why did Bitcoin suddenly break below $64,000?

The main reasons include Fed rate-hike expectations rising from below 10% at the start of the month to around 30%, Bitcoin spot ETFs seeing net outflows for three consecutive days, and a steep drop in Asian stock markets that triggered a synchronized weakening in global risk assets.

Q: How does a Fed rate hike affect Bitcoin?

Rate hikes increase borrowing costs and reduce investor interest in risk assets such as stocks and crypto. As a non-yielding risk asset, Bitcoin faces valuation compression pressure in a rising-rate environment.

Q: Where are Bitcoin’s key technical supports and resistances?

Near-term support is at $62,000, with stronger support at the $60,000 psychological level. Overhead resistance is at the 50-day EMA ($64,960), while the key mid-term resistance is the 200-day EMA (around $72,000).

Q: What does ETF outflow mean?

Continued ETF outflows indicate that institutional investors are reducing short-term risk exposure. Spot ETFs were previously seen as important buy-side support for a Bitcoin rebound, and the weakening in fund flows adds pressure to market sentiment.

Q: After the FOMC meeting, where will Bitcoin go?

It depends on four scenarios: a dovish hold could push Bitcoin to test $67,300; a hawkish hold could cap it around $62,000; an unexpected hike could test $60,000; and vague guidance could keep Bitcoin trading in a range.