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#夏日创作营 Will BTC break below $60k in the short term?
Over the past two days, BTC kept falling all the way to around 63,000. Ethereum is dropping even harder than Bitcoin. Besides the surface-level logic of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical conflict, there are a few deeper truths.
First, market expectations have already priced in the easing tailwind in advance. Previously, the market had been betting that the Fed would cut rates in the second half of the year. Funds moved in months ahead to position themselves, burying the trade on BTC. The price had already reflected the rate-cut expectation in advance. Now inflation data keeps rebounding, and the market is gradually realizing that rate cuts are likely to be delayed, and even there is a chance of a modest rate hike. The key isn’t whether “a rate hike will definitely happen,” but that the loose narrative that long holders relied on to support the trend has directly broken down, and capital has started actively withdrawing from risk assets. Ongoing outflows from many institution ETFs are the best proof—not sudden panic selling, but long-term money slowly realizing gains and exiting.
Second, Bitcoin’s “safe-haven narrative” is failing. In the past, everyone always thought that when conflict flares up, funds would run to BTC for safe-haven purposes—but this time it is completely the opposite. At present, capital’s first choice is gold and U.S. Treasuries, and crypto has been reclassified as a high-risk speculative asset. Once global equity markets start to pull back, institutions will cut crypto exposure at the first opportunity to bring cash back and hedge losses on the stock side. When stocks fall, BTC falls with them—this correlation breaks many people’s prior assumptions.
Third, the market liquidity structure has become extremely fragile.
At the moment, there is no sustained inflow of new off-exchange funds. The market is basically trading back and forth with existing liquidity. In the past, during uptrends, contract longs drove the move; once long-side confidence loosens and there is no fresh money to take the bid, even a little selling pressure can quickly drive prices down. Even more importantly, the Ethereum ecosystem is under heavier pressure: DeFi activity keeps declining, the NFT market remains sluggish, and ETH itself lacks an independent upward narrative—so its downside has been running persistently behind BTC.
Fourth, the composition of positions is changing. Retail traders and many mid-sized institutions that entered at high levels have been stuck above 70k and 80k. Each time there is a small rebound, a large volume of positions gets released, creating sell-pressure on breaks. A rebound is a window to distribute; it’s hard to sustain a pattern of continuous upside, leading to a slow grind downward.
Will it break below $60k next?
First, the conclusion: in the short term, there is a chance to test the $60k level, but for a direct and effective break below and for a sustained hold below 60,000 long-term, you need a major negative catalyst. With just existing-liquidity jockeying, there is strong spot-buy support around 60,000.
Reasons why support at $60,000 is not easy to break:
Around $60,000, there is a large amount of spot long-term capital and “whale” psychological-cost lines with staggered limit orders. Once price approaches this level, dip-buying funds will step in to absorb. If it breaks below 60,000 quickly, it would trigger large-scale liquidation of contract longs; but after the subsequent chain reaction and stampede, in the short term the oversold bounce is very likely to bring a rebound repair.
Bearish conditions that make it easier to break $60,000 (any one of these is enough; probability of breaking increases sharply):
The Fed’s latest rate decision meeting releases more hawkish-than-expected statements, directly dispelling expectations of rate cuts this year;
The U.S. accelerates the rollout of new crypto regulatory rules, further limiting institutional ETF funds;
U.S. stocks experience a sustained, deep pullback, triggering a coordinated selloff of global risk assets.
In simple terms: $60,000 is the line separating bulls and bears. For the short term, it can be tested, but whether it can steadily break through and stay below depends on the signals given by the Fed rate decision this week. $BTC
These past two days, Bitcoin has been steadily falling, dropping to around 63,000. Ethereum has fallen even harder than Bitcoin. Besides the surface-level logic of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical conflicts, there are a few deeper truths.
First, market expectations were already pricing in the rate-cut-friendly outlook in advance. Previously, the market kept betting that the Fed would cut rates in the second half of the year. Funds moved in months early to wait and position themselves in advance for BTC, and the price had already reflected the rate-cut expectations in the market. Now, inflation data has repeatedly rebounded, and the market is gradually realizing that rate cuts are likely to be delayed, with even a possibility of a modest rate hike. The key point is not whether “a rate hike will definitely happen,” but that the loose narrative that supported the longs has directly broken down, and capital has started actively withdrawing from risk assets. Ongoing outflows of ETF funds from many institutions is the best proof—this isn’t a sudden panic selloff, but long-term capital gradually cashing out and exiting.
Second, Bitcoin’s “safe-haven narrative” is losing effectiveness. In the past, people always thought that when conflicts arise, funds would move to BTC to seek shelter. But this time it’s completely the opposite. At present, funds’ first choice is gold and US Treasuries, and crypto assets have been reclassified as high-risk speculative products. Once global stock markets begin to correct, institutions cut crypto positions at the first opportunity to bring cash back and hedge losses on the stock side. When stocks fall, BTC falls too—this kind of correlation breaks many people’s prior assumptions.
Third, the market’s liquidity structure is becoming extremely fragile.
Currently, there is no sustained inflow of new off-exchange funds into the market; the price action mainly depends on battles back and forth between existing capital. During the uptrend, it relied on long positions in derivatives to push prices higher. Once long momentum weakens and there is no new capital stepping in, even a small amount of selling pressure can quickly smash down the price. More importantly, Ethereum’s ecosystem is under even more pressure: DeFi activity continues to decline, the NFT market remains sluggish, and ETH itself lacks an independent upward narrative—so its downside has been consistently worse than BTC’s over the long run.
Fourth, the composition of positions is changing. A large number of retail traders and smaller institutions that entered at earlier high levels are stuck above 70k and 80k. Whenever there is a small rebound, it triggers heavy sell pressure as they get out of positions. A rebound is essentially a distribution window, making it hard to sustain continuous upside, resulting in a drifting-down pattern.
Will BTC break below $60k next?
First, the conclusion: in the short term, there is a chance to test the $60k level, but for a direct and effective breakdown and a long-term steady hold below 60,000, it requires a major negative catalyst. With only existing capital competing, there is strong spot-buy support around the $60,000 area.
Why it’s difficult for $60,000 support to be broken:
Around $60,000 is the psychological cost line for a large amount of long-term spot capital and “giant whales” placing orders in batches. Once price approaches this level, dip-buying funds will move in to take over. If it rapidly breaks below 60,000, it will trigger mass liquidation of long positions in derivatives; after the cascading stampede, a short-term oversold condition would very likely bring about a rebound and repair.
Negative factors that could easily break $60,000 (if any one occurs, the probability of a breakdown rises sharply): the Federal Reserve meeting releases more hawkish-than-expected remarks, directly wiping out expectations of rate cuts this year; the U.S. accelerates new crypto regulatory rules, further restricting institutional ETF capital; U.S. stocks experience sustained, deep pullbacks, triggering a collective selloff of global risk assets.
In simple terms: $60,000 is the watershed between bulls and bears. For the short term, price may test it; whether it can steadily and convincingly break through depends on the signals given by this week’s Fed meeting. $BTC