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Analysis: Bitcoin’s rise has been accompanied by declining trading volume, and this rally is likely to be heavily influenced by macroeconomic shocks.

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ME News, April 28 (UTC+8). Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said that Bitcoin’s recent rise toward $80,000 has been accompanied by a sharp drop in trading volume and a deeply negative funding rate, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rebound. Bitcoin’s weekly trading volume is down 17% from the average, Ethereum’s trading volume has fallen 20%, the funding rate has dropped 6.8% to the 3rd percentile, and trading volume has decreased 33% to the 4th percentile. This rally is mainly driven by spot buying or short covering, rather than leveraged long speculation. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive days, with total net inflows for April reaching $2.5 billion, and Bitcoin’s market cap share has risen to 60%. Options market volatility has fallen to the bottom quartile of its historical range, and traders are pricing relatively moderate price fluctuations. Ethereum trading volume has dropped by more than 50%, and derivatives positions show limited risk appetite. Thielen noted that the market has shifted from a more active trading environment to one where most participants are watching from the sidelines; historically, an environment with low funding rates and low trading volume reflects hesitation rather than momentum. However, because leveraged long positions are limited, the risk of downside forced liquidations is lower, and if a catalyst emerges, the short-term risk-reward is tilted asymmetrically to the upside. (Source: PANews)
BTC-2.83%
ETH-4.47%
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