Fatal bad news keeps hitting in a chain! ETF sees two straight days of outflows. Next week’s FOMC rate-hike risk is closing in—don’t bottom-fish.

This week was a dead, stagnant range all the way through: throughout the week, the standard spot market traded back and forth within a tight intraday range, with no meaningful breakouts on either side. The price action has already been hiding signs of weakness and selloff.

The most lethal data is right in front of everyone: ETFs have recorded net capital outflows for two consecutive days, and the only spot incremental buy-side liquidity in the market is continuing to retreat. The confidence that bulls rely on is completely gone.

Many people are still fantasizing about a weekend rebound—don’t dream. All indicators point to a weaker setup. The real prerequisite for breaking into a one-way trend is volume. Right now it’s an ongoing low-volume grinding pattern. Every rebound is a bull trap for distribution, with no long-term long value.

The real storm officially starts next Monday. The FOMC meeting next week will be the watershed for this leg of the market. Market-implied odds of a rate hike are as high as one-third. Funds are collectively fleeing to safety, and everyone assumes the hike is only a matter of time—pressure on risk assets is already locked in.

Two major heavyweight events will pile up back-to-back next week: expectations of tighter Federal Reserve liquidity + the CLARITY Act entering the final decision stage. The most painful part of the summer market is already more than halfway over, but the current grinding, slow downtrend phase is still set to continue. Even over the weekend, trading is still likely to stay in a narrow, stagnant range. If any sudden abnormal move happens, I’ll同步 (synchronize) it immediately.

At this stage, the trading environment is extremely hard. Thin liquidity causes bullish and bearish logic to flip back and forth repeatedly—switching stances just keeps causing stop-loss losses. For now, I’m only holding firm on my Bitcoin DCA bottom-position to observe; everything else on the short term is being avoided.

Once the chart shows clear bearish confirmation signals, I’ll同步 (synchronize) my short setup strategy. I’ll focus on HYPE, SOL, and ETH—these have larger pullback room.

Get through the weekend safely, and I’ll update in real time on any macro surprises and any abnormal capital flows. #夏日创作营