#布伦特原油重返100美元 The consequences of the “Twin Gorges” resonance: Oil prices surge to $100

Yesterday, after Yemen’s Houthi forces launched attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Strait of Mandeb, global energy markets were thrown into panic, with Brent crude rising rapidly to above $100 per barrel.
Since Trump announced on July 7 the resumption of war against Iran, this month crude oil prices have recorded a cumulative increase of 40%.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Rubio both expressed disappointment with the Houthis’ actions, saying they were drawn into the conflict by Iran.
On his social platform “Truth Social,” Trump wrote: “Iran will face severe military strikes—of course, the Houthis themselves are not getting away with punishment either. I’m very disappointed in them.”
Rubio, speaking to reporters in the Philippines the same day, said it was wrong for the Houthis to threaten Red Sea shipping and to participate in the Middle East conflict on Iran’s behalf: “They’ve been fooled by the Iranians.”
In the early stages of the war with Iran, the Houthis were basically taking a wait-and-see stance, and were also viewed by the outside world as another ace in Iran’s hand that would not be used lightly unless absolutely necessary.

The Houthis said the tankers that were struck were the “Enselia” and “Laila” vessels. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler lists these two ships as Saudi vessels. However, Rubio said that one of the ships that was hit was flying the 🇨🇳 flag at the time. By stressing this, Rubio clearly had a purpose—nothing more than to hope to put additional pressure on 🇨🇳 on Iran and its proxies.

The “Twin Gorges” resonance further worsened the global oil supply chain. Previously, Ukraine’s large-scale attacks on Russian refineries had already thrown the global oil market into chaos, with shortages of diesel and gasoline becoming even more severe.

United Nations Secretary-General Guterres warned that the situation in the Middle East is “getting out of control,” that “it’s time to take a step back,” and that “all sides’ fighting must stop.” He emphasized that freedom of navigation must be restored, saying “diplomacy is the only way out.”

But now the United Nations has little effect, so how much weight do Guterres’ words carry? Trump said he is considering what would be the largest-scale bombing of Iran to date, and might soon make a final decision. In a new post, Trump also said the United States will use the Iranian funds it has “under its control” to compensate for losses of ships and cargo. He wrote: “From now on, any losses caused to ships or cargo will be paid using Iranian funds that are owned and controlled by the United States.” According to reports, at least $100 billion in assets have been frozen by the United States and its Gulf countries.

When both Iran and the U.S. signed the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” on June 17, Iran had hoped the U.S. would quickly agree to gradually unfreeze its $24B in Qatar. But that wish was quickly dashed.
In response to Trump’s latest threats, Rezaei, the military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, said Trump has gone from a “madman” to a “desperate person.” He said U.S. attacks on pilgrims and attacks on Iran’s infrastructure were a display of desperation and helplessness—this was Trump’s fatal mistake.

Re-blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a double-edged sword. The Houthis announced the blockade of the Strait of Mandeb, quickly creating a spillover effect, and the impact on global oil prices was immediate. Iran’s chief negotiator and chairman Kalibaf mocked the U.S. for its latest military strategy: “They want to punish Iran, but ended up punishing themselves because of triple-digit oil prices.”
Although the latest assessments from the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency both believe that this kind of bombing the U.S. is currently carrying out is unlikely to change Iran’s position, Trump is stuck with no good options—still considering launching a larger-scale strike against Iran to save the dignity of “Dumb King.”
Last month, Trump said he was not considering resuming the war with Iran unless U.S. soldiers suffered casualties. But Trump broke his word: on July 7, he issued the order to resume the war with Iran, and the latest four U.S. servicemen’s deaths all occurred after that point in time. In the end, cause became result and result became cause—trapped in a cycle of war. In a speech at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency yesterday, Trump emphasized he is not interested in resuming talks with Iran, and that Iran has not been prepared for negotiations. Iran still needs to be hit a few more times before it will behave.

However, Trump is a mercurial, changeable, unpredictable person—who can truly guess what’s on his mind? Yesterday, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia just signed a nuclear energy cooperation agreement, and today Trump backtracked. A White House spokesperson emphasized that if Saudi Arabia does not sign the “Abraham Accords” (Note: establishing diplomatic relations with Israel), then the nuclear cooperation agreement would be void. The “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding,” signed last month, quickly became a piece of scrap paper. Yesterday’s 30-year U.S.-Saudi nuclear energy cooperation agreement was also temporarily tacked on conditions, and it may become scrap paper as well—this is the current U.S. national credit score. Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Defense revised the latest death toll for the Iran war, saying that the number of deaths since July 7 cannot be put in the same basket as the Iran war that began on February 28, which ended on April 7.

In the author’s view, this is nothing more than word games. It cannot change the fact that the Iran war has not truly ended. Behind the death toll are tragedies for families one by one. Only if the U.S. and Iran return to the negotiating table can the tragedy be avoided—and only then can the world economy avoid becoming a “hostage” of a Middle East war. #SummerI'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.