BTC falls to 65k, ETH drops below $1,900: is it a short-term pullback or a trend reversal?

On July 24, 2026, the crypto market went through a notable pullback. Bitcoin continued to fall steadily below the intraweek high of $66,900, trading at around $65,000 at the time of writing; Ethereum saw a more significant drop, rapidly sliding from the $1,958 high to around $1,880, with a nearly 3% decline over the past 24 hours. The broader market has given back all of its gains from earlier in the week, and the market has returned to a key price level battle range. Is this pullback a normal correction during a bull market, or the start of a larger-scale trend reversal?

How is the current market structure defined from price action

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $65,100. After hitting a $66,926 high in the early hours of July 24, it kept falling, with an intraday retracement of more than $1,200. At the same time, Ethereum weakened from $1,958 down to around $1,877; the pullback was clearly stronger than Bitcoin’s. Both major core assets have fully given back the gains they had built earlier this week, and the market structure has shifted from short-term upward momentum to range-bound consolidation.

From price action itself, Bitcoin found temporary support around the $65,000 psychological level. However, it’s worth noting that this pullback came with a clear release of volume. On the 4-hour chart, the candles show a consecutive sequence of bearish candles, with a fairly clear pattern of high-profit positions being concentrated and exiting. Ethereum’s net outflows of funds reached $337 million, and panic sentiment is evident. Price action has already sent signals that the short-term trend has weakened, but whether the $65,000 level holds or breaks will be the core point to watch in determining the direction of the next evolution.

How to define the boundaries of the pullback in terms of key support and resistance

From the technical analysis framework, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a test phase of a critical support area.

For Bitcoin, the rebound high on the 4-hour level was $66,926, and the pullback low reached $63,729. The current key support zone is at $64,400, and the strong support is at $63,730. If price can stabilize above $64,400, the short-term pullback structure can still be viewed as a healthy correction; once there is an effective breakdown below $63,730, the pullback room will expand further. On the upside, $65,400 is the first resistance, and $66,000 is the stronger pressure zone. On the daily level, there are signs that the upward channel has been broken; the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a bearish cross and are diverging downward.

Ethereum’s technical situation is more severe. ETH has broken below MA21 ($1,917) and MA55 ($1,888), and short-term moving averages have formed a bearish cross. Key support lies around $1,850, with strong support at $1,842; if $1,842 is lost, it could push the price further toward $1,800. For rebound resistance, first look at the $1,900 to $1,915 range, and stronger resistance is at $1,940. The KDJ indicator’s J value has fallen to around -3, entering oversold territory, so a short-term technical rebound is possible, but the rebound’s strength depends on whether the overall market can stabilize.

How on-chain profit/loss and the MVRV indicator portray the current valuation level

On-chain data provides another important dimension for judging the nature of the current pullback.

Ethereum’s valuation signals are especially worth attention. According to CryptoQuant data, Ethereum’s current trading price is around $1,880, which is about 17% lower than its realized price (the average on-chain cost basis for all circulating ETH, roughly $2,300). Among five key Ethereum bottom indicators tracked by CryptoQuant, currently only the ETH/BTC MVRV ratio and exchange inflow volume have reached historical reversal levels; the other three indicators are improving but have not yet touched the extreme values seen in the earlier cycle lows. This suggests that while Ethereum has entered a relatively cheap zone, a clearly confirmed cycle-bottom signal has not been fully established.

For Bitcoin, the MVRV ratio has eased back from earlier highs. One analyst noted that Bitcoin had previously been trapped between the -0.5 and -1.0 MVRV bands, lacking a clear valuation advantage. On-chain data shows that around $65,000 there was relatively strong profit-taking, and sell pressure has started to build. At the same time, whales throughout July remain in a net accumulation state—about 270k BTC were added during the month, and long-term holder supply stays high. This divergence suggests that short-term traders are exiting, while long-term holders have not shown significant shakeout—one of the important bases for judging this pullback as a “bull market pause” rather than a trend reversal.

How macro “triple pressure” suppresses the valuation of risk assets

This pullback is not isolated within the crypto market; it is happening amid a rapidly changing global macro environment.

On July 24, the market faced a “triple pressure” resonance: Brent crude broke above $100 per barrel for the first time since May; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury surpassed 4.7%, reaching an 18-month high; and the U.S. Dollar Index held steady above 101. The surge in oil prices boosted inflation expectations. The rise in Treasury yields pressured the valuation of risk assets, and the strengthening dollar tightened global liquidity—three forces hitting at the same time. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in July has risen to nearly 40%, compared with only 12% a week earlier.

The transmission path from macro to the crypto market is clear: hotter rate-hike expectations directly lift the risk-free rate and reduce the relative appeal of risk assets; a stronger dollar also applies FX-level pressure to crypto assets priced in USD. The Nasdaq fell 2.15%, and Tesla plunged 14.5%—the sharp slump in technology growth stocks further confirms the systemic pressure that the macro environment is putting on risk assets. In this backdrop, Bitcoin did fall in sync, but its decline was significantly smaller than that of tech stocks, to a certain extent reflecting that crypto assets have shown some relative resilience against the macro shock this time.

Do derivatives market signals hint at a higher risk of bigger volatility

Funding rate and open interest data in the derivatives market are important references for assessing market sentiment and potential risks.

As of July 24, Bitcoin’s funding rate was -0.0001%, and Ethereum’s was -0.0011%. Slightly negative funding indicates the market has not shown obvious overly bullish sentiment, and the premium on long positions has essentially disappeared. To some extent, this lowers the risk of large-scale long squeeze liquidations occurring in the short term.

However, open interest data released a warning signal. As open interest rises while spot and on-chain trading volumes decline, the risk of liquidation-driven moves is increasing. Specifically, the perpetual contract CVD (cumulative volume delta) has shifted from net selling to a positive value of $123.2 million—indicating a subtle change in the balance of power between longs and shorts in the derivatives market. With weak spot demand as the backdrop, higher leverage in derivatives trading may amplify price volatility. The funding rate signal shows that longs still dominate, but the long-side premium is declining. This usually means sentiment is not overheated—yet it also means that if an external catalyst appears, the market may lack sufficient buffer capacity.

How to define the nature of the pullback—bull market pause or trend reversal

Combining data from the four dimensions above, we can make a phased judgment about the nature of the current pullback.

Signals supporting a “bull market pause” interpretation include: Bitcoin getting initial support around the $65,000 psychological level; long-term holder supply staying elevated and whales still net accumulating; the funding rate being slightly negative and the market not showing extreme greed; and Bitcoin showing some relative resilience compared with tech stocks.

Signals supporting concern about a “trend reversal” include: the upward channel breaking on the daily level; the moving average system forming a bearish alignment; ETF flows seeing a large one-day net outflow of about $225 million, ending a streak of net inflows over the prior days; multiple Ethereum bottom indicators not fully confirmed; and macro factors—rate-hike expectations and geopolitical risk—still escalating.

The more reasonable characterization right now is: this is a mid-term pullback driven by technical factors triggered by macro pressure, and it has not yet provided sufficient evidence of a trend reversal, but downside risk is building up. Whether Bitcoin can hold the $63,730 strong support and whether Ethereum can stabilize above $1,842 will be the key observation variables for determining the nature of the pullback over the next several trading days.

Summary

On July 24, 2026, Bitcoin fell to around $65,000 and Ethereum broke below $1,900, with the broader market giving back all of its gains from the week. The logic behind this pullback is macro “triple pressure” (oil prices breaking above $100, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hitting an 18-month high, and the rate-hike probability rising to nearly 40%) exerting systematic suppression on risk assets. Technically, BTC’s key support levels are $64,400 and $63,730; ETH’s key supports are $1,850 and $1,842. On-chain data shows Ethereum is about 17% below its realized price, but the bottom signal has not been fully confirmed; long-term Bitcoin holders are still accumulating. In derivatives, the funding rate is slightly negative, but open interest rising alongside spot trading volume declining indicates liquidation risk is accumulating. Overall, the current pullback is more likely a structural correction rather than a trend reversal, but the outcome at the key support levels will determine the direction of the next phase.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Where is Bitcoin’s most important support right now?

Based on Gate market data (as of July 24, 2026), Bitcoin’s core support zone is $64,400, and strong support is at $63,730. If price can hold above $64,400, the short-term pullback structure can still be seen as a healthy correction; once it effectively breaks below $63,730, the pullback room will expand further.

Q: Why is Ethereum down more than Bitcoin?

The main reasons Ethereum’s drop is more significant include: net fund outflows of $337 million and more evident panic sentiment; ETH breaking below the two moving average supports MA21 ($1,917) and MA55 ($1,888), with short-term moving averages forming a bearish cross; and Ethereum being about 17% lower than its realized price (around $2,300), putting it in a relatively weaker range.

Q: What does a negative funding rate mean?

A negative funding rate (BTC -0.0001%, ETH -0.0011%) means short-position holders are paying fees to long-position holders. This typically indicates the market sentiment is cautious, with less long leverage and relatively lower risk of large-scale long squeeze liquidations in the short term. At the same time, it also suggests the market lacks strong bullish momentum.

Q: What does ETF outflow mean for the market?

On July 23, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $225 million, ending several consecutive days of net inflows. This reflects profit-taking by some institutional investors and a cooling of short-term sentiment. However, the cumulative net inflow year-to-date still remains at a high level of about $52 billion, meaning the long-term inflow trend has not fundamentally changed.

Q: Is the current pullback a buying opportunity or a risk signal?

Based on on-chain data, Ethereum has entered a relatively cheap range but the bottom has not been fully confirmed; long-term Bitcoin holders are still accumulating. Technically, both major assets are in a phase of testing key support. From a macro perspective, rate-hike expectations and geopolitical risk are still escalating. Overall, the current market is at a critical point of long-versus-short game rather than a clear one-way opportunity or risk scenario; the gains or losses of key support levels will be the core basis for subsequent judgment.