Trump is really getting desperate this time! 😰

He lays it all out—if the Republicans in the Senate only have 53 seats, and if every Democrat votes against, ordinary bills can’t even pass, and the government might shut down directly! This isn’t a bluff; it’s a real, tangible risk.

The question is: how much impact will a government shutdown really have on our crypto market and the US stock market? Let’s dig into history and see the pattern.

In the short term: panic first, then divergence
Once the government stalls, tens of thousands of employees take unpaid leave, economic data stops updating, and the market is like a blind driver—this kind of uncertainty is the most annoying. US stocks usually dip first out of caution, but historically, during shutdown periods, the S&P 500 averaged a slight increase of 1.2%? Surprising or not? For example, in the 2018 case, it fell 13% before the shutdown, but during the shutdown it bounced back by more than 10%. Sometimes the market treats shutdowns like noise and just doesn’t care.

Bitcoin $BTC ’s reaction is even more interesting. During the 2018 shutdown, BTC fell 9%, but in the 2025 time—an ultra-long shutdown—BTC first surged to a new all-time high of 126k because of the “safe-haven narrative,” and then when a liquidity crisis hit, it crashed by more than 20% again. The “big pie” script is always this exciting.

BTCUSDT
Perpetual
64,830.7
-1.81%
After it ends: uncertainty fades, and a rebound is in reach
Historical data is right here—within 3 months after the government reopens, the S&P 500’s average gain was 8.5%. Bitcoin was even more aggressive: after the 2018–2019 shutdown ended, BTC rose 51.5% within 3 months, and within 5 months it surged nearly 300% straight—from 3,500 to 13,000! ETH in the same cycle also jumped 190%.

But this time may be different!
Don’t get too excited yet—the current situation is totally different from before—
Brent crude oil $CL just broke $100, and inflation pressure is huge. The US Federal Reserve could raise rates at any moment. Plus, some analysis says the shutdown could pull nearly $700 billion in liquidity out of the market. If that really gets pulled, risk assets would all have to drink from the same bitter cup.

CLUSDT
Perpetual
92.21
+7.2%
And right now, it’s “vice chair” time at the Fed—the power is with “Wait-and-see” (or “watchful” stance), even more hawkish than Powell. If a shutdown stacks on top of high oil prices and forces him to raise rates early, then the script would be written completely in reverse.

To sum up
A government shutdown could be an opportunity in the short term—when panic dumping happens, that’s when you can pick up bargains. Historically, the rebound after it ends has been strong. But if the shutdown drags on too long, and it stacks with higher interest rates and high inflation, then the rebound might really just be a rebound.